1. The 30-Year Hits 5.7%. Scary
And just like that, yields are up again.
The 10-year U.S. Treasury is trading at 5.3%, and the 30-year is at 5.7%, the highest level in a very long time.
Everyone thinks it’s going to be okay, but keep in mind, there is a big problem underneath. There is a lot of debt out there. Those carrying a lot of it or need a lot of it are probably panicking.
The move in the bond market is scary, and it has the potential to break things. Don’t overlook. Bond market is much bigger than the stock market and impacts everything.
2. Stocks Hit Record Highs But Half the S&P Isn’t Invited
The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq hit all-time highs yesterday. It was all about how great the stock market is and everything around it.
But if you look underneath, you find out very quickly that not every stock is participating.
Less than 50% of S&P 500 companies are trading above their 200-day moving average. That means less than half the companies in the S&P 500 are trending up.
Earnings season is about to begin. Know what you own and why, because during earnings season, your stock-specific risk goes up.
3. Oil Bounces Back as Headlines Drive the Market
Oil is bouncing a little today, with WTI at $90 and Brent above $100 again.
Looking at the chart, WTI is finding a lot of support at its 50-day moving average. Oil is really reacting to what’s happening in the Middle East.
And there is one more crisis that may not be getting a lot of attention: what’s happening between Russia and Ukraine.
Oil is reacting to headlines, and it’s volatile. Allocations need to be watched very closely.
4. Gold and Silver Are “Buy the Dip” Opportunity?
At the time of writing, spot gold is trading a few dollars below $4,100. It will be interesting to see how it closes today.
If $4,100 is defended, good. But if not, more sellers could come in. The next big support for gold is around $4,000.
Interestingly enough, the data suggests everybody is seeing the decline in gold prices as a buy-the-dip opportunity. Gold ETFs bought a record $31 billion worth of gold in the third quarter of 2026, according to the World Gold Council.
Silver is also trading below $60 after defending that level for a few days in a row. If silver breaks $60, the next level isn’t until around $53 to $55. If that breaks, we could be looking at silver around $47.
5. The AI Trade Is On But the Cracks Are Forming
The AI trade is looking interesting because it’s the only thing that’s working, and there is a lot of money behind it.
The problem is that skepticism is growing.
There are a lot of issues around data centers and a lot of noise around chip financing.
So far, so good. Nobody is saying anything is breaking, but it takes a while for things to break, and markets can go much higher than you’d expect.
The trade is on for now. But the risks are growing, and if the AI trade unwinds, it won’t be a pretty sight. Don’t forget, AI needs a lot of money too. Money is getting expensive to get.