1. Lots Of Data for Canada This Week
Canadian housing starts jumped.
Foreign investors bought $709 million worth of Canadian securities – the first inflow since January. However, Canadian investors purchased $9.0 billion worth of foreign securities, resulting in a net outflow of $8.3 billion. Since January, foreign investors have sold over $22 billion in Canadian securities, while Canadian investors have purchased $63 billion in foreign securities (Stats Canada).
Upcoming key data: Canadian inflation (Tuesday), New Home Price Index (Wednesday), PPI (Thursday), and Retail Sales (Friday). These numbers need to be watched closely.
2. Comic-Con For Central Bankers Begins This Week
Throughout the week, several Federal Reserve officials are expected to speak. Keep in mind that the bond market is convinced a rate cut is coming in the September meeting, so messaging around it could be important.
Additionally, the Jackson Hole Symposium (often referred to as the ‘Comic-Con for central bankers’) begins on Thursday, with Powell speaking Friday at 10:00 AM.
Overall, for the U.S., it’s a relatively slow data week, but it could still generate a lot of noise. Be mindful.
3. Crypto World Volatility
Last week, Bitcoin briefly broke above $120K, but it didn’t last long. Currently, Bitcoin trades at $115K, down about $9K from the $124K high on August 14th.
Looking at the price action, it seems there are many sellers waiting above $120K. This could be a simple retest before another move higher, but it would need to break above $124K to bring back real excitement.
Remember: the crypto market is highly volatile. This move is nothing new and won’t be the last. When buying crypto, you’re also buying volatility. Always know what you own, why you own it, and how much you own relative to your overall portfolio.
4. Oil, Gold, Copper… And Global Troubles?
Oil: If oil can’t hold the $60–$62 range, the next move could be down to $56.00. At that level, many oil stocks could face significant pressure. Below $60.00, cash flow issues become a real risk. Once again: quality over quantity.
Gold: Still looks interesting. On the chart, an ascending triangle is forming on the daily. Below $3,300–$3,250 could mean pain, while a break above $3,450–$3,480 could lead to a big move.
Copper: Charts look severely broken. Notably, the oil-to-copper ratio keeps trending lower. This could be hinting at a global economic slowdown—or it might just be a misleading metric.
5. Going Nuclear, Air Canada, War & The U.S. Dollar
Morgan Stanley published a report titled “Nuclear Power’s Renaissance.” It’s worth reading if you’re interested in nuclear energy trends. While there’s certainly a sales pitch in it, the report explains the situation clearly. As noise grows around nuclear, expect some low-quality or misleading information to surface as well.
Air Canada Strike: The strike continues despite a back-to-work order. Air Canada has suspended its third-quarter and full-year profit guidance. This is not surprising given the situation.
Geopolitics: Ukrainian President Zelensky is meeting with Trump today, following Trump’s meeting with Putin in Alaska. Could this signal progress toward ending the war?
U.S. Dollar Index: Currently flat, but worth watching closely.