1. Canadian Housing: New Home Prices Drop
New home prices are down in Canada… *acts surprised*
Not much data out of Canada or the U.S. today.
However, a bunch of Fed officials are speaking.
Tomorrow: Canadian PPI, and a bunch of PMIs out of the U.S. and Europe.
2. Stock Indices Struggle — Fourth Day in a Row
Stock indices are down for the fourth straight day (at least at the time of writing)… *acts more surprised*
What’s happening? It’s literally the heavyweights on the indices dragging performance down, just like how they dragged it higher.
The AI trade is being questioned at the moment.
3. Spotlight on the UK: Fiscal Risks Rising
If there’s a place worth watching, it’s the UK. I know it sounds crazy, but there could be some sort of fiscal madness leading to a potential crisis—remember the one we saw a few years back?
The budget deficit is soaring. Bond yields aren’t tamed: 30-year yields at 5.5%, and 10-year yields at 4.7%.
Inflation isn’t coming down, yet the Bank of England has cut rates.
On top of that, the economy is starting to cool.
All in all, the next few quarters will be super interesting for the country.
4. Precious Metals, Oil, and Uranium Moves
Silver and gold are catching a bid today after selling off yesterday. But in case there’s broad market selling, expect some selling here too. Why? Liquid assets often get sold to pay for margin calls.
Oil remains choppy, but the direction is still down.
A massive move down in uranium stocks—no obvious catalyst here, but with all the recent noise, profit-taking makes sense.
5. U.S. Housing Market Weakness: JHX Signals Trouble
More evidence that U.S. housing is rolling over—take a look at JHX stock. About 70% of the company’s revenue comes from the U.S., making fiber cement products. Management literally said:
“Uncertainty is a common thread throughout conversations with customer and contractor partners. Homeowners are deferring large-ticket remodeling projects like re-siding, and affordability remains the key impediment to improvement in single-family new construction…” (Source: JHX).
U.S. 30-year fixed mortgage: 6.58%.
Sales activity: dismal. Mortgage applications: anemic.
But I guess no one told the homebuilder stocks? Or maybe the market thinks the worst is already behind us?