1. Canadian Retail Sales: A Big Jump?
Canadian retail sales report a big jump in June. Woohoo! Canadians are back in business?
Oh wait, June sales actually dropped according to early estimates.
Even with this good news, the Canadian dollar isn’t really catching a bid.
2. Powell at the Central Bankers’ Comic-Con
The central bankers’ comic-con began yesterday. Today is the main event, with Powell expected to speak at 10:00 a.m.
Everyone is expecting Powell’s speech to be bullish for stocks and hint at rate cuts in September.
I can’t stress this enough: don’t be too complacent.
3. Toronto Pre-Construction Market in Trouble
You want to know how bad the Toronto-area pre-construction market looks right now?
Developers aren’t able to sell anything.
Compared to the past few years, you’re looking at a collapse in sales.
I saw some data recently from a developer: sold less than 5 units for the week, compared to doing 300–400 units a month in past years.
Trust me on this: they won’t build if they can’t sell.
I still can’t believe there’s no reporting out there on it, except on X.
4. Oil, Gold, and Silver Watch
Oil: Third green day today. Let’s see. It’s going to be an uphill battle. I think it’s primarily Russia/Ukraine related at the moment.
Gold: Five consecutive closes below the 50-day moving average. Will today be the sixth? Or do we get a big bounce on Powell?
Silver: Watch the 50-day moving average here. Acting as a strong support level for now.
5. What’s Happening With AI Stocks?
“Moe, what is happening with AI stocks?”
It’s a few things at play.
- First, there was a report out of MIT suggesting that all the capex in Gen AI is almost useless, and adoption isn’t going to be as fast as everyone thinks.
- Second, there are growing questions about valuation…funny that it’s a question now.
- Lastly, remember: sometimes nothing has to go wrong. If enough people decide to take profits, you get heavy selling.
Oh, also — I think the selling in uranium stocks is mainly due to what’s happening in the AI trade more than anything else.