1. Big Data Week Ahead
Relatively light data the past few days.
But, we get U.S. GDP tomorrow and then PCE Index + Consumer Sentiment on Friday.
Also, pending home sales for the U.S. tomorrow will be interesting to watch.
For Canada, GDP comes out Friday.
2. S&P 500 Monthly Streak
The S&P 500 is setting up for a fourth consecutive monthly close higher.
In 2024 and 2023, the longest streak of consecutive monthly higher closes was five months.
In 2021, there was a seven-month higher close streak.
In contrast, in 2022 the longest streak was just two months.
Back in 2017, there was an 11-month higher close streak.
3. Copper in Focus
Is copper setting up to move lower?
After Trump’s tariff fiasco, copper fell hard but flattened out.
Today, it’s seeing one of the biggest moves in a while. Let’s see. Interestingly, there’s no major noise driving it. $4.33–$4.31 is a big level to watch.
Why do I keep focusing on copper? I think it’s a metal that doesn’t get enough attention. With the push for more energy/electrification, it’s hard to do without copper. Very few mines produce significant amounts, and it takes years to build major new supply. Long-term, it’s worth a close watch.
4. Commodities Check-In
Oil got to $65, but couldn’t hold there.
Gold remains above its 50-day moving average, but the range is getting tighter. Will the September rate cut break it out of this consolidation—up or down?
Uranium stocks are taking a breather, as uranium prices have stabilized a little and the noise about AI productivity has calmed.
Silver has made a few lower highs, struggling to push a higher high. In fact, it just made another lower high. $39.50 is the big level to watch.
5. Bitcoin & Market Signals
Bitcoin continues to trade below its 50-day moving average. Not uncommon for bitcoin, but now the big thing to watch is the 200-day moving average. Usually, wild things happen around there.
The VIX continues to say no one is afraid.
Yields – nothing exciting happening the past few days, but that doesn’t mean it’s all fun and games.
The U.S. Dollar Index is flat, but losing momentum.