1. Economic Data: Job Revisions, Housing Softness & What’s Next
There’s a lot happening in the U.S. economy, but just as much noise.
Last week’s jobs numbers weren’t great, but what really stood out was the massive downward revisions to prior months. That’s where the real concern is.
On top of that, we’re now seeing some cracks in housing—with three straight months of negative month-over-month data.
The next focus? Consumer spending and inflation reports. If those start to soften too, the narrative around a slowdown will only get louder.
2. Earnings Look Strong—But for How Long?
With more than 80% of S&P 500 companies reporting, the earnings growth rate is coming in well above expectations. That explains the market’s resilience lately.
But here’s the thing: if everyone agrees the U.S. economy is slowing, will future earnings continue to look this strong? Probably not.
If forward estimates get revised down, expect the indices to adjust as well. The next few quarters may not be as pretty as what we just saw. Or, they could be.
Just don’t be complacent.
3. Yields Are Signaling Something—But What?
There was a sharp move in U.S. 10-year yields after Friday’s jobs report, followed by a continued bond rally on Monday.
This could be the market starting to price in rate cuts. Investors are positioning into bonds, but it still feels a bit early.
One question: if bonds are the next trade, where will the money come from? Equities? Commodities?
Also, remembered how U.S. yields were dragging global yields higher (I have mentioned this before)? Now, with U.S. yields dropping a little, could that signal some relief for global yields in the near term at least?
4. Commodities: Oil Can’t Catch a Bid, Gold & Silver at Key Levels
Oil prices tried to move higher last week on Russia-related headlines, but failed to hold. We’re back near the $65.00 range—and a break below that could mean a fast trip to $55.00 or lower.
Gold is doing something interesting around its 50-day moving average. Since late June, every time it dropped below, it bounced back strongly. Keep an eye on the $3450 level—if that breaks, we could see a strong rally. Also worth noting: July marked the first positive monthly close since January.
Silver has been sitting just under $39.50, and holding its 50-day moving average three days. A break above that could attract new buyers.
5. Canadian Housing: Anecdotal Signs, Job Data & Bitcoin Support
Here’s something anecdotal—but interesting. I’ve been noticing more “Sold” signs popping up around town. Is this sellers throwing in the towel, or are buyers quietly coming back in? (realtor friends, what are you seeing?)
We’ll get a better/around expectation read this Friday with Canada’s jobs report hopefully. After last month’s wild print, anything’s possible.
Also watching the U.S. dollar index—feels like it’s trying to bounce. There’s solid base building, but it could also be just a dead cat bounce.
And finally, Bitcoin. It failed to break $120k, and now it’s heading lower. I think $110k is key support. A clean break could take it to $100k real fast.