1. Bank of England Cuts Rates – But There’s A Bigger Story Here
Bank of England cut its benchmark rate by 25 basis points, as expected. What’s interesting is the timing—it follows the UK’s trade discussions with the U.S.
I believe the European Central Bank (ECB) has also hinted it’s waiting on a U.S. trade deal before making any moves. The Bank of Canada has released ‘what-if’ scenarios regarding a deal with the U.S.
So, central banks seem to be in a ‘let’s see how it goes’ hold pattern, but rate cuts are likely inevitable after a trade agreements?
2. Canadian Jobs + Housing: What Headlines Aren’t Telling
Tomorrow, we’ll get the Canadian job numbers. Last month, economists were way off—every single one missed by a wide margin. This time, expectations are for 15,000+ job additions, and unemployment rate at 7.0%
Also notable: Toronto-area home sales jumped in July, marking the busiest July since 2021. But here’s a key caveat: this was driven by sellers caving in. Home prices in the region are down 5% year-over-year.
There’s a lot of pain in the condo market—something no one’s really talking about (except X).
3. Trump Greenlights Crypto & PE in 401(k)s
President Trump will sign an executive order allowing Americans to hold crypto and private equity (PE) in their 401(k) accounts. (for Canadians, this is similar to RRSPs)
Sounds great, right? More freedom, more choice. Why shouldn’t anyone be allowed to anything they want in their retirement account? This could be bullish for cryptos and private markets.
But don’t forget: these assets classes come with serious risks compared to the average stock. In some case you are buying more volatility than you think. You also take on big liquidity risks etc. Hopefully this doesn’t open the door to excessive risk-taking in retirement portfolios… famous last words?
4. Gold Crosses $3,450: Can It Hold?
As I write this, gold is trading above $3,450—a major level. A consistent close above this and a move past $3,500 could mean a rally toward $4,000.
I admit I was wrong a few days ago, expecting a sell-off based on the 50-day moving average breakdown.
Few catalysts that can be bullish for gold: next week’s U.S. inflation data, falling yields, a weaker dollar, tariff noise on metals, and major banks raising price targets.
Key levels to watch: above $3,500 is uncharted territory; $3,250 remains strong support—a break below could be very bearish.
I will also say this: there’s still a short-term bearish case here. So, don’t get too complacent.
5. Trump vs Intel, Apple Spending Big, Copper’s Tug-of-War
Trump is calling for the Intel CEO to resign (the precedent being set here is interesting), and has proposed 100% tariffs on non-U.S. chips. Meanwhile, Apple is investing $100 billion into U.S. manufacturing. Hold on, is this time to buy companies that facilitate onshoring?
If the U.S. Dollar Index holds around 98, we’ll see a second higher low – suggesting an emerging uptrend, but need more conviction.
Copper is trading at $4.40. For a push back above $5.00, we’d likely need more tariff escalation. But with growing chatter about the economy slowing, further weakness in copper is possible.