1. BANK OF CANADA – NO CUT EXPECTED
There’s virtually zero chance the BoC cuts rates today.
This comes at a time when the Canadian economy is clearly struggling.
Why no cut? I think they’re worried tariffs could mess up the inflation picture very quickly.
I also don’t think they’re concerned about housing heating up again—at least not yet. I think a very tough lesson is being taught by interest rates to Canadians and their madness around housing.
2. FEDERAL RESERVE – ALSO NO CUT
Same story with the Fed. Virtually zero chance of a rate cut.
The U.S. economy is humming along: unemployment low, job market steady. Housing is rolling over a bit, but nothing major. Even the junk debt world looks fine.
This morning’s GDP headline number? Better than expected.
3. COMMODITIES – OIL, GOLD, SILVER, COPPER
Oil catching a small bid on noise and a U.S. ultimatum to Russia. Let’s see if it holds. For WTI, key levels: $71–72 first, then $75–77.
Gold is losing momentum.
Silver: okay, but struggling to find buyers.
Copper: $5.40 is the level to watch. A break below could take it lower. The July 28 reversal around that level was notable.
4. EARNINGS SEASON
S&P 500 profit margins looking decent so far, outlook not dire. But don’t get complacent. Higher global tariffs will eat into margins unless we’re betting on strong global growth and rising incomes.
I remain very careful heading into August through mid-October.
5. CURRENCIES, BITCOIN, AND TARIFFS
Watching the CAD and USD closely as BoC and Fed decisions come out. CAD has been trending up, and I suspect the BoC doesn’t like it. A dovish tone today could knock CAD lower.
Bitcoin: still can’t get above $120K.
Trump: announcing 25% tariffs on India plus penalties for trading with Russia. India buys a lot of Russian oil (so do Japan and South Korea). This will be interesting.