1. Copper’s Wild Ride – Key Levels Breaking
Wow, this move in copper is huge. This comes right after Trump said tariffs will only apply to certain products. Up until now, the assumption was broad-based tariffs, but that’s out the window.
Copper futures are trading at $4.38 per pound as I write this. We know $4.40 was a key level before, and $5.40 was significant support too.
With these levels breaking, margin calls are likely. If we see more forced liquidation, my dream price of $2.00–2.50 could actually be possible (haha). But let’s not get ahead of ourselves: massive support sits at $3.90–$4.00.
2. Metals Under Pressure – Watch Silver, Platinum, Palladium
With Trump clarifying that tariffs are only on certain copper products, there’s now a psychological spillover. Investors may think other metals won’t be hit directly, so margin calls in copper can cause liquidations elsewhere.
Already seeing silver, palladium, and platinum selling off with relatively big moves.
Just some caution: if I were sitting on a big basket of mining stocks, I’d reevaluate exposure here.
3. Canadian GDP, Fed & BoC – Data Still Mixed
Canadian GDP declined in May, but early estimates suggest growth returned in June. The Bank of Canada didn’t cut rates yesterday. Instead, they gave a lot of “if/then” conditional statements.
Similarly, Federal Reserve held steady. U.S. unemployment claims this morning came in fine, showing the jobs market remains strong.
However, the Challenger job cuts report (also released this morning) says announced job cuts are up ~140% year-over-year. That’s a weird divergence worth watching. Makes my view somewhat stronger that U.S. is coming down in growth. Not broken, but not hot.
4. Post-Fed Selling – First Move Isn’t Always Right
Yesterday after the Fed announcement, there was selling across the board. But remember: the initial market reaction often ends up being wrong. The real trend appears later. Watching what happens today and tmrw.
My take? Earnings are going to roll over a bit. The market isn’t pricing that yet.
I remain cautious going into August through October. Also, S&P 500 trading ranges are getting super tight. Summer or not, choppy action like this tells me market is on a fine line. A bit of relief selling wouldn’t be bad.
5. US Dollar Strength – Loonie Takes a Hit (and a Few Side Notes)
Since the Fed didn’t cut rates, the U.S. dollar spiked. No surprise there. The Dollar Index was stabilizing for days already.
The Canadian dollar sold off on the BoC announcement, and I see little bit more selling in the short-term at least – commodities selling off have a potential to take it lower.
Bitcoin continues to trade sideways – interesting how all the noise around it has disappeared.
And here’s a random one: I’m seeing Dubai real estate being pitched in Canada. Could this be a sign of a bottom in Canadian housing? Hmm…