1. Strong Jobs Number… But a Weak Underbelly
The U.S. reported 119K jobs for September — much higher than expected and closer to the trend we’ve been seeing.
Great, right? Well… not so fast.
The unemployment rate came in at 4.4%, higher than expected. A year ago, it was 4.1%.
And remember we don’t get an October jobs report, and November’s will be delayed. As always, focus on the trend. Keep an eye on job cuts, ADP, unemployment claims, and other indicators too.
2. Nvidia Mania Continues — A Massive Red Flag
Nvidia beat expectations. Woohooo!
But honestly… it’s getting insane. Financial media is drowning in Nvidia noise.
This is a textbook sign of concentration — too much money chasing too few names. Sure, the party can go on, but the punchbowl eventually gets taken away.
Trade the direction, but use stops, risk management, and common sense. Keep your eyes on the big picture. Predicting tops is a dangerous game.
3. S&P 500 Testing a Critical Technical Level
Yesterday marked the third consecutive close below the 50-day moving average for the S&P 500.
Today, we test that level again — with NVDA’s massive weighting helping push the index up.
If we close above the 50-day, expect more buying. If we fail, we could see more selling.
Watch the October 10th and October 14th lows — these are major levels. If they break, expect accelerated selling.
4. Canadian Producer Inflation: A Quiet Shock
Canada released IPPI and RMPI today — and there’s zero cooling. In fact, it’s borderline alarming.
Industrial product prices: up 6% YoY
Raw material prices: up 5.8% YoY
If producers see costs soaring, they will try to pass it to customers. But what if they can’t? Then we risk more job cuts… and the vicious cycle continues.
5. Bitcoin Stable, Commodities Mixed, Dollar Quietly Rising
Bitcoin is holding at 88K–90K — no major catalyst.
Gold and silver remain choppy.
Oil is up slightly, but still in a downtrend with every rally being sold.
Quietly, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is at 100 — don’t ignore this. Meanwhile, U.S. 10-year yields remain sticky above 4%.