1. Canadian Retail Sales: The Headline Beat Isn’t the Real Story
Canadian retail sales came in better than expected.
Great, right?!
Not really. The deeper you go into the report, the more you realize that the headline was a “beat,” but the underlying trend is weak. Remember, trend is very important. One data point doesn’t tell you the whole story. Trend does.
- Retail sales grew just 0.2% in Q3.
- Advance estimates for October show no change.
- September retail sales fell 0.7%.
This is not what a strong consumer looks like.
2. Market Got Sucker-Punched – Again
Yesterday, the market essentially sucker-punched everyone.
Everyone was convinced that NVDA’s strong earnings meant we were still early in the AI cycle and heading into a big melt-up.
Look, I’m not anti-AI, but I’ve seen this movie before… many times. Anyone who has been in markets for 10–15+ years knows this feeling.
When everyone is extremely bullish and you can’t find a single bearish thesis, that’s when you go into protective mode.
3. S&P 500 Technicals: Not Looking Great
Looking at the S&P 500, we got a fourth consecutive close below the 50-day moving average, plus a new low below the October 10th low.
Today, we might see some early short covering, but the late session will be the one to watch.
If yesterday’s lows break? I wouldn’t be shocked to see more selling. When the 50-day moving average fails, there’s usually follow-through.
If you’ve lost 20–30%+ over the past few days, it’s time to reassess:
- Your allocations
- Your risk controls
- Your actual plan for trading or investing
4. Precious Metals & Oil: Some Key Levels
In gold, we now have a lower high, and $4,000 is the key battleground. It’s getting defended, but if sellers take control, more selling wouldn’t be surprising.
In silver, the chart is showing a cup-and-handle pattern for the technical traders.
If it is indeed that pattern, silver needs to break $52, and then the next big stop could be around $60. But, patience is required. Won’t happen overnight. If it does, we got some serious problems.
Oil is selling off on U.S.-driven Russia–Ukraine peace plan chatter. For WTI, $56 remains a major support level.
5. Bitcoin Pain, Dollar Strength, and Japan’s Yields
The Bitcoin chart has been rough. It made a low of $80K, and there’s support just above the $77K–$78K region. Lots of pessimism here — which makes me interested.
The Dollar Index (DXY) is quietly grinding higher and just crossed its 200-day moving average for the first time this year. Do not ignore this.
Also, keep an eye on Japan’s bond yields. Could we see a repeat of August 2024, where panic hits and people start begging for emergency rate cuts within hours? Not impossible.