1. Jobs, Jobs, Jobs
This week’s biggest focus: employment data.
- In the U.S., the government shutdown continues, so we likely won’t get the official payroll data on Friday.
But we’ll get some clues:
• ADP Non-Farm Payrolls on Wednesday
• Challenger Job Cuts Report on Thursday - In Canada, October jobs data comes out Friday. Estimates suggest 4,000 jobs lost and the unemployment rate rising to 7.2%.
We’ll know more by week’s end.
2. Amazon Joins the AI Gold Rush
Amazon is investing $38 billion to provide computing services using Nvidia chips.
If you can’t see it yet, let me spell it out: the market is betting heavily on OpenAI.
Is that bad? Not necessarily — but when everyone’s on one side of the trade, even small disappointments can hurt.
Not calling for a top, but this kind of one-sided optimism feels risky.
For context: people called the tech boom a bubble in 1996… it didn’t pop until later. But it did pop.
3. Commodities Check-In
Gold and silver are finding decent support for now. But if markets face a sell event, don’t be surprised to see them fall with everything else — a lot of profits are sitting there.
Oil charts suggest few buyers above $60.00 — worth watching.
Uranium names made lower highs.
There’s a momentum crash in rare earth stocks.
4. Canadian Budget Noise
Lots of headlines about the Canadian budget, but let’s be real: Canada’s problems are structural.
We’ve lost productivity, piled on too much debt, and don’t generate enough income.
With variable-rate debt and higher interest rates, things only get worse.
Budgets or rate cuts won’t fix this overnight — expect slow, miserable growth for a while.
Watching how the Canadian dollar (CAD) reacts.
5. Global Market Watchlist
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) continues to show strength, nearing 100 — a key level.
Bitcoin is below its 200-day moving average; a drop to $102K or lower wouldn’t shock me.
Russia-Ukraine risk remains subdued, but far from gone.
The private equity/credit story also deserves attention.
And finally, U.S. 10-year yields remain above 4% — not exactly calming. Let’s see how the week unfolds.