1. U.S. Jobs Data — But Not the Official Kind
ADP jobs data suggests the U.S. added 42,000 jobs in October. Keep in mind: this number comes from a private source, not the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
Thanks to the government shutdown, we likely won’t get the official jobs report on Friday.
For Canada, markets expect a loss of 5,000 jobs on Friday and a rise in the unemployment rate.
2. When Expectations Are Too High
Just an observation — something I’ve said for a while: when expectations are extremely high, even an average result feels like bad news.
META seems to have triggered something. Investors are finally taking a closer look — as they should have all along. Spending and capex aren’t the only games in town.
Apple (AAPL) reported strong results across the board, yet the reaction was subdued. AMD reported average results, and the stock dropped.
Remember: nothing has to go wrong. When the market is this concentrated, even a bit of profit-taking can drag the whole index lower.
3. Precious Metals Under Pressure
Gold closed below $4,000 yesterday and continues to trade under it. That’s a major level to watch — if it doesn’t hold, it could trigger selling pressure.
Silver is nearing its 50-day moving average, which has been a key support level for a while.
Copper looks vulnerable below $4.80, which could send it lower.
Meanwhile, nuclear and uranium stocks are losing steam quickly after recent strength.
4. Zohran Mamdani Wins NYC Mayor Race
Zohran Mamdani is now the mayor of New York City — and the reaction says a lot about how politics has shifted.
Talking heads are still refusing to accept that things have changed. It’s a wild comparison, but Mamdani is as much a direct consequence of legacy politics as Trump was.
I don’t know if he’ll be good for the city — I don’t live there — but he spoke to local issues that New Yorkers deal with daily. He talked to real people, and that’s what got him votes.
It’s that simple. Don’t overcomplicate it.
5. The Dollar Holds, Bitcoin at Key Level, and Canada’s “Investment Budget”
The U.S. Dollar Index is above 100 as I write this — that’s a major level. The dollar has been quietly building support, and it shouldn’t be ignored.
Bitcoin is holding near the $100K–$102K support zone — let’s see if it stays intact. So far, it’s holding steady.
In Canada, the new federal budget is being dubbed an “investment budget.” The deficit is large, but remember: fiscal policies take time. They don’t change things overnight.
The bigger question is — will this budget change sentiment?