1. U.S. Home Prices: Cracks Are Showing
We get U.S. home prices data today — and it’s showing significant deceleration. But as I’ve said before, investors are acting like nothing is wrong. Today’s data will tell more.
There’s also a lot of noise about the Canada–U.S. trade deal being in jeopardy, with no progress expected until the new year. But remember, the trade deal is just one piece of the puzzle.
Canada faces deep-rooted problems — weak productivity, lack of trade diversification, and high household and business debt. These are the real issues that need fixing too.
2. Double Dose of Rate Decisions Tomorrow
Tomorrow’s a big day for rates.
In the morning, we hear from the Bank of Canada, and in the afternoon, the Federal Reserve takes the stage.
Both are expected to cut by 25 basis points.
Despite the noise about sticky inflation, the slowing job market suggests inflation could cool further — making rate cuts more likely.
But don’t forget: the risk of stagflation still lingers. That’s the painful scenario shouldn’t be overlooked.
3. Markets on Edge Ahead of Rate Cuts
On the eve of rate cuts…
Markets are likely to trade flat today — or just follow the same direction as yesterday, but much more tame.
By 2:00 PM tomorrow, expect movement after the Fed’s announcement.
Keep in mind, the initial market reaction can often be dead wrong. The real trend usually emerges later. People need to digest the data.
4. Oil, Gold, and Uranium: Volatility Brewing
Oil failed to break $62.00 and is now heading lower.
Watch key levels:
- Upside: $62.00–$65.00
- Downside: $56.00–$57.00
A move beyond these levels could bring strong buying or selling.
Gold is trading below $4,000 — after defending that level for days. With rate cuts on deck, watch closely. If sentiment cracks, we could see $3,800 or lower.
Meanwhile, Uranium is getting attention: Cameco and Brookfield are partnering with the U.S. government to build reactors. That’s a notable development, especially for non-U.S. companies landing major contracts.
5. Bitcoin, Dollar, and Yields: The Calm Before the Storm
Bitcoin is holding firm around $114K, finding support near its 200-day moving average. Let’s see how it reacts post-rate cut.
The U.S. dollar index is quietly building support — don’t be surprised if the dollar jumps after tomorrow’s announcement.
Yields remain in a holding pattern, but the trend points lower. Still, a short-term spike wouldn’t shock me — it’s classic “buy the rumor, sell the news” setup.