1. U.S. & China About to Sign a Deal?
Does this reduce global economic risk?
Can’t stress this enough — the world continues moving in a bipolar direction. There will be opportunities, but also volatility along the way.
Stay cautious, stay selective.
2. Rate Cuts from Both Sides of the Border
The Bank of Canada cut rates by 25bps, citing structural problems in the Canadian economy and sticky inflation. Shocking… but not really. I think we’ll see a few more cuts ahead since the economy is still not growing.
The Federal Reserve also cut by 25bps and ended QT — something everyone expected.
However, Jerome Powell hinted that a December rate cut might not happen, which poured cold water on expectations of an aggressive easing cycle.
3. Market Concentration Still a Big Problem
I’ve talked about this many times: market concentration is becoming dangerous.
A few large-cap names dominate the indices, and we’re seeing the impact today with Meta disappointing and dragging the NASDAQ lower.
Now imagine if the top 10% of names in the indices disappoint together — what happens to the overall stock market? That’s the kind of risk investors are ignoring right now.
4. Gold Holds, Oil Slips, Uranium Wakes Up
Gold and silver actually held up well after the Fed announcement.
Oil is below $60 as I write this — not much willingness for higher prices out there, plus ample supply. Only a major Russia-Ukraine escalation or new sanctions could push oil higher at this point. Or something in the Middle East.
Meanwhile, uranium stocks are starting to pick up momentum.
Copper is selling off slightly on U.S.–China trade deal noise, this makes sense.
5. U.S. Dollar Bounces, Bitcoin Tests Key Support
The U.S. Dollar Index is bouncing — above 100, there’s potential for more buying.
The Canadian dollar initially rallied after the BoC rate cut (as expected), but that rally faded quickly. It’s down today, potentially resuming the downtrend that’s been in play since June–July. Watch in case there’s a break below 0.70 against the USD. That would take cad lower.
Bitcoin is testing — and currently below — its 200-day moving average. Be careful. A sustained close below that level could take Bitcoin down to $100K or lower.
Lastly, U.S. yields are bouncing — the 10-year is back above 4%. Let’s see if this is just profit-taking or if the bond market is starting to adjust to a new reality.
Markets move fast, and the best opportunities rarely make the headlines. Take a look at the Trade Ideas page, I am planning to do something exciting. Share picks, setups, and strategies I’m watching before the crowd catches on.
Join the mailing list, and be the first to know when I launch.