1. U.S. Government Shutdown Continues
We are not getting much of official data out of the U.S.. So far, not much panic about this, but let’s see how it unfolds if the shutdown continues for longer.
Next week Wednesday and Thursday, some key inflation data out of the U.S. is due. Will that get skipped as well? Agencies like BLS, BEA and Census have said they will suspend collection of data and distribution until funding is restored.
In the meantime though, bunch of Federal Reserve officials are expected to speak. I have to wonder if they’d go little big more dovish.
2. Oh Canada…
This Friday, we get Canadian job numbers: a whopping 2,800 jobs are expected. Just so you know, last month there was a loss of over 65,000 jobs. Plus unemployment rate is expected to increase to 7.2%.
Canada is going through the worse of it. Data is catching up.
Next three to four months are critical. Early 2026, I expect some stability. But make no mistake: Canada is very far away from “excelling.” There are several major headwinds, and they need to be addressed/managed.
3. Everything Is Awesome For The Stock Market
OpenAI taking a stake in AMD, this is sending shockwaves through the stock market. Let’s get more all-time highs, right?
Look, it usually all fun and games until someone takes the punchbowl away. Fact: very few stocks are dragging the market higher. Nothing has to go wrong, but if collectively investors just decide to take profit in just few names, everything will look wild.
Making money? Great! But, know that everything is far from awesome. It’s usually times like these when there’s misallocation, and FOMO is severe.
Also, look beyond the top 100 best performers. There’s value there.
4. Gold & Silver: What’s Next?
Gold at all-time highs, getting close to $4,000 an ounce.
Silver had a solid day on Friday. Keep in mind, its trading in a major resistance zone. If it can cross $50.00, I think something wild will follow.
Also, hearing lots of noise about “people lining up to buy physical gold and silver… but paying higher premiums.” I have heard this noise before, and it’s also possible that dealers are gouging. But, if there are supply issues, and people can’t get hands on the metals; get ready for even wilder ride.
Mind you: I continue to see gold and silver getting crowded.
5. Bitcoin Finds Buyers, Dollar Jumps, & Japan
Bitcoin over the weekend traded as high as $125,700. But, had come off those highs. Still though, it is hovering close to all-time high territory. Excitement is brewing here, but keep in mind that we are going to need a lot bigger buyers to take it much higher.
Watching the U.S. dollar index, and its very clear that there’s a solid support at 96.50 for now, and there’s buying. Rising dollar is a also a sign of flight to safety. Don’t ignore it.
Have you looked at Japanese stocks? Massive move yesterday took it into another all-time high territory, while the Japanese Yen loses some serious strength against the dollar.