1. Producer Price Index (PPI) Came in Lower Than Expected
The Producer Price Index (PPI) came in lower than expected today, which is a good sign on the surface. But the real test comes tomorrow with the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI).
Here’s why these numbers matter: with the job market slowing and the economy rolling over, you want to see inflation data—both PPI and CPI—move lower. If that doesn’t happen, we are staring at stagflation, and that’s a worst-case scenario.
A low-inflation, slow-growth economy can be fought with interest rate cuts and money printing. But higher-than-normal inflation combined with a weak economy? That’s a much tougher problem to fix.
2. No Fear in the Stock Market
There’s absolutely no fear in the stock market right now. It’s almost impressive.
Just take a look at the VIX index—often called the “fear gauge”—and you’ll see it’s basically asleep. Market is really far from worried about anything.
I guess it’s ok because the earnings outlook still looks rosy?
But let’s not even get into valuations: nearly every measure suggests the stock market is extremely overvalued compared to historical averages. But for now, the music goes on, and investors are dancing.
3. Commodities: Gold, Oil, Uranium, and Palladium
After a long stretch of solid days, gold prices finally had a day where sellers took control, with the price closing lower than it opened after making a high. That’s usually a sign that sellers are stronger than buyers. But with CPI data due tomorrow, things could get wild for gold.
Oil prices want to move higher but are struggling to break the $65 level.
Uranium stocks seem set up for a breakout.
Palladium prices are really moving.
Overall: commodities are worth keeping a close eye on. Interesting times. I even read a headline about iron ore… what!
4. U.S. 10-Year Yields Cooling Off
The U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield is starting to cool off a bit.
Is the bond market finally realizing it was spooked for the wrong reasons—or is this just a head fake? Either way, yields are worth watching very closely.
I can’t stress this enough: U.S. yields often have a gravitational pull. When U.S. yields rise, global yields tend to follow.
Also, keep the U.K yields on some sort of watchlist as well.
5. Bitcoin and Oracle Stock Moving
Bitcoin is catching a bid again, but it still needs to clear the $113K–$115K range, and then the $120K–$124K zone for a major move to the upside.
$ORCL is shooting through the roof. The chart is worth a close look. The last time ORCL made moves like this, it was during the tech boom—oh wait.
Former Bank of Canada governor warns both Canada and the U.S. headed towards a recession. *Acts shocked*
Canadian housing remains a mess.