1. Inflation & Retail Data: Mixed Signals
Canadian inflation headline figures came in lower-than-expected month-over-month. Nothing too shocking there.
Meanwhile, U.S. retail sales beat expectations — both the headline and core figures — hinting that consumers are still spending.
Also worth noting: U.S. import prices were reported this morning, coming in higher than expected. Gotta keep an eye on this number.
2. The Big Rate Day Tomorrow
Tomorrow is the big one.
We’ve got the Bank of Canada and the Federal Reserve rate announcements. Everyone’s expecting a cut — and we’ll likely get one.
But the real story? How big is the cut, and what’s ahead.
For the U.S., watch the projections and dot plots.
Canada, in my view, just needs to lower rates and see how things unfold. There’s a lot happening under the hood, including possible capital flights.
3. Gold & Silver: Waiting for the Move
After the rate announcement, it would be surprising if gold and silver didn’t react.
Both metals have been on a tear, and the rate-cut noise has only added to their momentum.
I think silver is catching up to gold — it tends to do wild things in the late stages of a cycle.
On a side note: I’m seeing a bunch of junior miners showing extraordinary volume.
4. Toronto’s Pre-Construction Bubble
I saw an Instagram post of a Toronto-area realtor wearing a shirt saying, “Money doesn’t grow on trees; it grows in pre-construction.”
It gave me a good laugh — and made me want the shirt. Why? Because it’s so false.
People who invested in pre-construction condos over the past few years are feeling the pain. Their money didn’t grow — it vanished.
There’s a pre-construction condo bubble bursting in the Toronto area, and hardly anyone is reporting on it.
5. Dollar Index, CAD & Bitcoin
The dollar index continues to weaken big time. 96.5 is a critical level to watch — if it breaks, the dollar could take more damage.
If I’m the Bank of Canada, I’d want a lower CAD. With a 25 bps cut tomorrow, the CAD could rally — let’s see.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin is still holding its 50-day moving average.
And remember: after a rate announcement, the initial move can be wrong. The real trend doesn’t show up until later.