1. Canadian Home Prices Keep Slipping & Key Speeches on Deck
Canadian new home prices declined once again month-over-month—not shocking at all. Canadian housing market is hurting.
Today we’ll also hear from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem.
Overnight, PMIs out of Europe showed weakness; British, German, and French data all came in lower than expected.
2. Gold Hits Record Highs – Silver’s Relentless Climb
Gold surged to new highs this morning, now trading above $3,800 as I write this.
Silver remains relatively far from its all-time highs, but it has been relentless. Both metals are drawing serious attention—even silver is making headlines, which is rare.
This could be the late stage of the move, where upside can be explosive and last a while, but exhaustion eventually comes. I know this sounds insane at the moment.
If we are assuming gold doubles from here, then I think we got some major systematic problem.
3. Where Are the Bears? Market Complacency Rising
Once again, I can’t find a decent bear argument against the stock market. It feels like no one is bearish.
That alone worries me—when everyone is bullish, a top may be near.
But predicting tops and bottoms is dangerous business. Trend is your friend, but I’m staying vigilant. Complacency can have dire consequences.
4. OpenAI, Nvidia & the $100 Billion Buzz
There’s so much noise about the rumored $100 billion deal between OpenAI and Nvidia. I’ve been flooded with questions like “Is NVDA a buy?”
These numbers are huge, but it won’t all happen tomorrow. It will take time.
Calm down, evaluate, and react. Sometimes the real trade isn’t in NVDA—it’s somewhere else.
Not everything that’s up is good, and not everything that’s down is bad.
5. Bitcoin Holds $112K & Yen Carry Trade Watch
Bitcoin is selling off a bit, holding around $112,000 for now.
The U.S. dollar index remains weak.
Last week, the Bank of Japan announced it will reduce its ETF holdings. Since BoJ can’t raise rates (remember August 2024?), this could be important for the carry trade—or maybe it’s a non-event. Worth watching.