1. Canada’s GDP Shows First Growth in Four Months
Canadian GDP for July rose 0.2%, beating expectations after a 0.1% decline in June.
This is the first monthly gain in four months. Advanced estimates for August show no change.
A big drag on growth came from retail trade, which makes sense given Canadians’ high debt, high cost of living, higher interest rates, and stagnant income growth.
2. Fed’s Favorite Inflation Gauge Falls Below Projections
The Core PCE Price Index—the inflation measure the Federal Reserve watches most—came in at 2.7% for August (2.9% excluding food and energy).
The Fed’s projections are 3% for 2025, 2.6% for 2026, and 2.1% for 2027. This sets the stage for potential rate cuts. Add in unemployment potentially going up, odds increase.
Key question: Will bond yields follow the Fed’s path, or are we entering a phase where cuts lose their punch?
3. Market Weakness or Just Headlines?
Yesterday marked the third straight day of selling across major indices. Headlines make it sound like the world could fall apart any moment now.
Here’s what you need to know: the S&P 500’s trend remains upward despite some loss of momentum.
Key downside levels: 6,200 on the S&P 500, 50-day moving average at ~6,450, and an unfilled gap at 5,760.
Upside level to watch: 6,700.
4. Silver Nears Historic Levels
The silver chart shows buyers firmly in control, with a steepening trend.
Also worth noting and very important: silver is getting into ranges last seen in 2011. There will be some serious tests here (this was the end of the last bull cycle). If it is able to cross $50.00, I think it might not stop till much later. I know sounds crazy right now, but $70ish would be possible in that case and that might happen within months.
But, before you get all too excited: $49.50 is an all-time high on silver just so you know. It has been tested twice, and each time it failed…. And when it did, a massive downside followed. You are looking at about 80% downside in that case.
5. Commodities & Crypto: Moves to Watch
- Uranium stocks are seeing a surge in volume, especially on the Canadian venture exchanges.
- Oil at $65—a break above $66–$67 could open the door to $72.
- U.S. dollar index seems to have a near-term bottom at 96.50 and is catching a bid.
- Bitcoin sold off hard yesterday. At $109k, the next big support is nearby. Below $108k, it could quickly fall to the $104–$102k range.