U.S. Consumer Is Strong?
1. This morning, we got U.S. retail sales. Headline figures were decent – up 0.6% month-over-month, and up 3.9% year-over-year.
Digging in details: decent numbers too. Furniture, electronics and department stores seem to be struggling, but its nothing dire really.
So, is the U.S. consumer still strong? Data continues to point they are doing ok.
Also, US unemployment claims were reported too. Lower than expected. Jobs market still going strong in the U.S.
$71.9 billion left Canada In The First 5 Months of 2025?
2. For the month of May, foreign investors sold $2.8 billion worth of Canadian securities. Mind you: this was a fourth consecutive monthly divestment.
Plus, on top of this, Canadians bought $13.4 billion worth of foreign securities (led by US stocks).
Net outflows of funds from Canadian economy for the month of May was $16.2 billion.
January through May – foreigners divested $18 billion from Canadian securities, and Canadians bought $53.9 billion worth of foreign securities.
Math: $18 + $53.9 = $71.9 billion… left Canada.
Gold, Oil & Uranium
3. Gold: trading way too close to its 50-day moving average, and choppy/sideways for a whole now. Today, starting the day red. Lets see. Close below the moving average could induce some selling. I say that because its having hard time above it.
Oil; still in a down channel, and I continue to believe you need a major event for it to take it higher. But, $65 in the near term starting to hold. Worth watching.
Uranium price has been declining for past few days – fundamentals remain strong though. But don’t tell uranium stocks this whatsoever. The rally continues. URA just posted an all-time high yesterday. Something to keep an eye one. Maybe there’s crazy optimism happening.
Tariff War
4. Apparently 150 countries are about to get letters from Trump administration that they will get hit with a tariff of 10-15%.
Remember how the market reacted last time to the liberation day? Will it be the same this time? August 1st is the date everyone seems to be touting.
However, in the midst of all this, something really getting overlooked, and TD talked about it yesterday too. Look up “we are inching closer to a wartime economy”(BNN and CTV reporting on this). Physical markets getting squeezed – something I have talked about for a while 😊
U.S. Dollar & Others
5. As tariff noise gets louder, US dollar index is staring to bounce a little as well. Keeping an eye on it. Greenback has lagged a bit lately.
Looking at the Canadian dollar versus the U.S. dollar, its starting to cool off. Below 0.725 potential for more selling. Oh and will BoC cut? Apparently 6% chance that BoC cuts in July.
Japanese yen at an interesting support level too imo. $USDJPY bouncing off a major support level. I know it sounds crazy right now, but there’s potential for a move above 160 here.