1. Economic Data & Central Bankers on Deck
From an economic data perspective, not much is happening over the next few days.
However, lots of central bankers are expected to speak, and you’ve got to watch the narrative they set. Last week, the Federal Reserve cut rates and hinted that more cuts could be ahead. Will all the FOMC members speaking this week keep the same tone?
- Wednesday: U.S. New Home Sales – interesting to watch as housing in the U.S. seems to be rolling over a little bit. (Not expecting a collapse.)
- Thursday: U.S. Final Estimates for Q2 GDP
- Friday: Canadian GDP and U.S. PCE Index (remember this is the Fed’s key inflation measure).
2. Commodities Heating Up: Silver, Gold, Oil & Uranium
Silver: Overnight, there was buying and price gapped higher above Friday’s close. Since the morning, it’s been losing some strength and could close that gap. Still, it’s been relentless for weeks; nothing has sparked heavy selling.
Gold: Catching a bid. My $3,800 target is getting close; I’ll re-evaluate.
Oil: Approaching the bottom of its range. Below $60, the $55–$57 zone comes quickly. For oil stocks, $60 is a key level. Quality over quantity.
Uranium stocks: Still buzzing – “so full of electricity.”
3. Yields: Watching the U.S. 10-Year and Canada’s 5-Year
U.S. Yields: Watching the 10-Year. Since May, yields are down about 50 bps. After the Fed’s rate cut, yields actually rose – could be a classic “buy the rumor, sell the news” setup. Be careful before predicting zero rates. Remember, U.S. yields have a gravitational pull globally.
Canada Yields: Watching the 5-Year. Cooling off about 40 bps since July, back to May levels. This yield is tied to mortgage rates, which matters in a country where lots of mortgages are up for renewal.
4. Stock Market: No Fear, Only Up
It’s impressive how far the stock market has surged from the April lows. As it stands: there’s no fear. I haven’t seen a single decent bear argument. Everyone is convinced earnings growth continues and markets go higher.
Arguments are all about AI, capex, lower rates, and that valuations don’t matter much…historical averages are just averages and nothing else.
The direction is up. Fighting the trend is injurious to your portfolio – very dumb investment strategy. But, be vigilant – we’re entering overbought territory, and some cooling might be needed. Don’t get caught by surprise.
5. Dollar, Bitcoin & Sentiment
U.S. Dollar Index: Caught a bid but remains weak. 96.50 is the big support level to watch – it was tested recently for only a few minutes. Buyers likely lurk there. Why the weakness? Markets think U.S. rates are coming down, the U.S. economy is slowing, and other currencies aren’t as weak as before.
If we get broad selling, and the dollar gets bought, that’s your flight to safety signal. When everyone is seeking safety, you need to be looking too.
Bitcoin: Selling off, breaking below its 50-day moving average. Next stop: $108k or lower?
Trump’s $100,000 H1B1 Visa plan: Will companies just pay less to these workers or outsource entire departments?
Canadian Sentiment: Can’t be stressed enough – less than 11% of Canadians think their finances will be better in 12 months. A report today shows 41% of restaurants were at a loss or breakeven as of June. 75% of Canadians are eating out less (rising to 81% for ages 18–34).
Markets move fast, and the best opportunities rarely make the headlines. Take a look at the Trade Ideas page, I am planning to do something exciting. Share picks, setups, and strategies I’m watching before the crowd catches on.
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