1. Housing Data Takes Center Stage
The biggest data point today is the new U.S. home sales report.
Tomorrow brings final Q2 GDP estimates and unemployment claims, while Friday is loaded with Canadian GDP and the U.S. PCE Index — the inflation gauge the Federal Reserve actually watches.
Also, keep in mind: FOMC members are speaking throughout the week. Be mindful of the noise and narrative.
2. S&P 500: Earnings Up, Valuations Higher
Analysts now project a 7.7% increase in Q3 earnings for S&P 500 companies — higher than estimates at the end of Q2.
Ratings snapshot: over 12,000 analyst ratings on S&P 500 stocks — 55.8% Buy, 38.9% Hold, and just 5.3% Sell. Buy ratings are above their 5-year average, Hold and Sell ratings are below their 5-year averages (Source: FactSet).
Why so rosy? Because everything’s awesome, right?
Mind the valuations: forward P/E for the S&P 500 sits above its 5- and 10-year averages.
3. Gold & Silver: Trend Up, But Cooling Off
Gold and silver lost a lot of ground yesterday — especially after Powell’s comments. This kind of price action suggests buyers couldn’t “hold the line,” or we saw some profit-taking.
It wouldn’t shock me to see a few negative days ahead, even though the trend still points upward. Some cooling might be necessary for the next leg up.
Also worth noting: I’m seeing some moonshot estimates for gold — one headline even called for $6,000 gold.
4. Private Equity: Cracks Beneath the Surface?
There’s been a surprising wave of bad headlines around private equity lately.
Remember, not too long ago, the pitch was that PE would become accessible to everyday investors via 401(k)s and ETFs.
Why I’m watching: when mark-to-market hits and assets have suffered, the potential for contagion rises. This market is so illiquid and opaque it’s hard to see cracks before something breaks.
5. Dollar Weakness Flying Under the Radar
The U.S. dollar has been quietly weakening — down over 10% year-to-date — and hardly anyone’s talking about it.
The Dollar Index now hovers near a big support level. Let’s see how it holds.
I’ve said this before: if the U.S. dollar catches a bid and markets fall, it could be a sign of flight to safety.
Also, keep a close watch on the news around Russia/Ukraine. It might move the dollar.