1. Big Week for U.S. Jobs Data — Watch the Trend, Not Just the Number
Relatively light data today, but it’s an important week overall. One thing worth watching: U.S. housing statistics on Tuesday — plus the JOLTS report on the same day.
The grand finale comes Friday with U.S. job numbers for September. Expectations are around 51,000 jobs added, but pay attention to the trend — job growth is stalling hard.
The JOLTS report will shed more light on the labor market.
Don’t forget the big theme: data is starting to confirm the U.S. economy is rolling over. It’s not a collapse, but there’s clear cooling.
2. Earnings Optimism — But Time to Pause and Reflect
Stocks: Solid green day on the S&P 500 Friday — but on lower volume.
Earnings estimates are up. Analysts now project S&P 500 companies to grow earnings 7.9% vs. 7.3% at the start of Q3. (Source: Factset)
The good times keep getting better?
I know I sound like a broken record, but when everything is too awesome, you need to pause and reflect. Too much awesome needs a lot more awesome to stay high for longer. A bit of somberness is sometimes needed.
3. TSX Venture Rockets +56% YTD — Miners Go Wild
Have you looked at the TSX Venture lately? Probably not — but it’s up 56% year-to-date. This index was the butt of all jokes since the precious-metals top in 2011.
Now it’s gaining a lot of attention.
I’m seeing micro/small-cap miners doubling — or more — like no tomorrow.
Some silver miners I’ve tracked show huge volume spikes. I saw this in 2010–2011 too.
Things are getting exciting, but too much greed can hurt. Garbage stocks will float. Be very, very careful when the trade turns — and it will.
4. Oil Hits $66 — Commodities in Focus
Oil tested $66 on Friday — a big level. Let’s see how it goes. Why the bid? Likely tied to Russia–Ukraine tensions. Plus, Patriot missile deliveries could escalate things further.
Gold consolidating.
Keeping a close eye on copper: FCX accident at Grasberg mine in Indonesia could impact global copper supply — a few big mines produce a large chunk.
Meanwhile, uranium prices keep moving higher and uranium stocks remain hot.
5.Bitcoin Bounce, Dollar Strong, Yields Sticky
Eric Trump says buy the dips. Bitcoin bounced, but still sits below its 50-day moving average.
Continuing to watch the U.S. dollar index. 96.5 is a strong support near-by.
U.S. 10-year yields aren’t cooling.
Canadian 5-year yields aren’t dropping much either — even with rate cuts demanded by the market.