1. Panic? U.S. Government Shutdown Looms
There’s talk of a possible U.S. government shutdown on October 1st.
Before you panic, remember this isn’t new—it’s happened before and is more political than economic.
Core services keep running, and while some government employees face delayed paychecks, the impact on the overall economy is usually limited.
2. Key Data: U.S. Housing & JOLTS Report
Today brings U.S. housing data and the JOLTS report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
- Housing has shown cooling trends in recent months, and since it’s a big GDP contributor, it’s worth watching closely.
- JOLTS gives deeper insights: job openings, turnover, layoffs. This complements Friday’s jobs report (assuming no shutdown).
3. Markets Wrap Q3 on a High Note
Yesterday was uneventful on the major indices, but momentum is strong:
- S&P 500 → Closing higher for 5 straight months, up 37% since April lows.
- TSX → Also 5 months higher, up 35%.
- NASDAQ → 6 months higher in a row.
It’s the end of Q3, and with earnings season around the corner, expect portfolio reshuffling as funds and investors rebalance.
4. Commodities in Focus: Silver, Copper & Oil
- Silver is selling off overnight, but the trend is still up. A dip-buying bounce could fuel the case for $50 silver sooner than expected.
- Copper remains strong, partly due to FCX’s Indonesia mine story. Supply is tight—too few mines, and not enough new projects.
- Oil failed to hold the $65–$66 range, back at $62. A drop below $61 could mean a quick fall to $55–$57.
5. Crypto, Volatility & Private Credit Risks
- Bitcoin is testing its 50-day moving average—worth watching.
- VIX shows no fear in markets.
- Dollar Index holds steady with 96.5 as support.
- In private equity/credit, cracks are forming: recent bankruptcies signal headwinds. The opaque nature of this market means risks could take time to surface.