1. U.S. Government Shutdown Drama
The U.S. government shutdown is in full swing.
If it lasts until Friday, we won’t get the September jobs report until it’s over. Some estimates say 15 days until shutdown is over, but truth is, no one knows.
Keep in mind though: shutdowns are usually more political than economic, but the longer they drag on, the more they risk hurting the U.S. economy.
Oh, and if you looked at the Challenger Job Cuts report today, you read it correctly: most layoffs since 2020, and weakest hiring since 2009.
2. S&P 500 at All-Time Highs—What’s Next?
The S&P 500 just broke above its late-September highs, hitting fresh all-time highs.
September marked the 5th straight positive month, with four record closes.
In the recent years, after 5–6 positive months in a row, the S&P 500 often sees a pullback.
Don’t be surprised if October or November turn red. For context, the last big run was seven consecutive positive months in 2021.
3. Gold & Silver Shine—But Don’t Get Carried Away
Seriously loving how gold and silver prices are doing. I have been covering these for a while, and it’s good to see what’s happening. At $1,050 gold I called it opportunity of a lifetime. During covid times, around $12-$15, I called silver “look now, or you will be kicking yourself later.”
The bullish case remains intact with upside ahead.
But the trade is getting crowded.
Back in 2020, I was ready to take a second mortgage and buy. Today, risk management and smart allocation are crucial. It’s not an easy trade.
4. Fed Speeches = Same Old Song
Plenty of FOMC officials have spoken, all echoing the same message: interest rates will come down eventually, but inflation risks remain.
Translation: higher for longer.
Remember, Federal Reserve policy drives global markets
…and interest rate volatility can break things fast.
5. Canada’s Jobs & the Case for a Rate Cut
Next Friday, Canada releases its jobs report.
With unemployment above 7%, talk of layoffs, weak manufacturing activity, and fragile housing markets, the economy is slowing (you shouldn’t be shocked by this whatsoever).
The Bank of Canada may be leaning toward another rate cut at its October 29 policy meeting.