1. Jobs Data: The Quiet Storm Brewing
Tomorrow, we get U.S. unemployment data for September. Remember: due to the government shutdown, not much official data came out.
Expectations are for a 55,000 job gain and 4.3% unemployment.
Look, trend > one data point. The trend right now suggests job growth in the U.S. has slowed down big time.
And don’t forget, the Federal Reserve has two mandates: inflation and jobs.
If the job market keeps slowing and inflation remains sticky, what does the Fed do next?
2. S&P 500 Breaks a Key Support… Again
The S&P 500 closed below its 50-day moving average for the second straight day — first time since March.
“But Moe, why does the 50-day MA matter?”
Well, for years now, markets have treated the 50-day moving average as a strong support level: it touches, then bounces.
But sometimes it breaks below, and when it does, you often get selling.
Will the pattern repeat?
3. Gold & Silver Buyers Are Back
There was heavy buying in gold and silver overnight.
What does that tell me? Dip buyers are stepping in.
Gold saw strong buying just below $4,000 yesterday — that level is clearly being defended.
For silver, $49.50 looks like a major level right now.
A move back down to the levels again could be dangerous.
4. NVDA Earnings Mania: Too Big to Fail?
I find it wild how much attention is on NVDA earnings today. We get results after the close.
Financial media? NVDA headlines everywhere. Social media? Same thing.
This is more evidence of pure concentration in a handful of big names.
It’s almost like tech is becoming “too big to fail.”
I’m not anti-AI — it’s here to stay. But the financial world might be losing its mind a little.
5. Oil Struggles, Bitcoin Needs a Catalyst
Oil still can’t find buyers.
Bitcoin has near-term support around $89–88K. It needs a catalyst — fast — or risk dipping toward the $70K range. Who’s going to tweet “buy the dip?”
Canadian PPI comes out tomorrow. Worth watching since “no deal” situation with the U.S. Then retail sales on Friday — and a decline is expected.
Meanwhile, yields (US10Y) remain stuck above 4%.