1. Global PMI Wave + A Messy Jobs Week
Lots of PMI data came out from all over the world.
In normal times, we’d get employment data for both the U.S. and Canada this week — but with U.S. numbers delayed, we’re only getting Canadian jobs data on Friday.
We do get some unofficial U.S. labour signals: the Challenger Job Cuts report and ADP Jobs data.
Remember: these aren’t the official numbers, but they can still provide valuable insight into the direction of the U.S. jobs market.
2. S&P 500 Pops Above Its 50-Day — But Volume Says “Relax”
The S&P 500 ripped past its 50-day moving average last week. Sounds great, right?
Well… keep in mind it happened on very low volume thanks to the Thanksgiving holiday. Don’t be surprised if the 50-day MA gets tested again before any continuation higher.
But we’re heading into December, historically a strong month for stocks.
The two things that can ruin the party: the Federal Reserve and any ugly economic data that reinforces a slowdown.
3. Silver +98% YTD — Wild, Loud, and Late-Cycle
As of Friday, Silver is up 98% year-to-date.
Don’t say you weren’t warned — silver does wild things.
It just broke out of a major pattern last week. Let’s see how far the upside runs.
BUT — I’m starting to feel like we’re entering the late stage of the cycle.
Not calling a top… but from experience, the craziest moves usually happen near the end.
If you’re heavy in mining stocks, be careful. There’s a lot of garbage floating around.
4. A Bold Call: Is Canada Bottoming Out?
Here’s a spicy one: the Canadian economy might be forming some kind of bottom or at least calming down… contrarian take.
Why?
- Peak pessimism
- Bad data but hints it may not get much worse
- Government spending ramping up
- Interest rates have come down meaningfully
- Inflation starting to behave
Next 3–6 months could be choppy, but stability may follow. My bigger concern: long-term low growth. Canada could be stuck around 1–2% annual GDP growth for years. This could give a feeling of being stuck.
5. Dollar Dips, Bitcoin Slips, and NVDA Goes Shopping
The U.S. Dollar Index is sliding a bit.
Bitcoin sold off overnight — key support sits around $85K, then $81K. Break below that and caution is warranted.
NVIDIA (NVDA) bought Synopsys (SNPS) stock — more circular investment behaviour. I’m still unclear whether NVDA bought shares on the open market or via dilution. If anyone has looked deeper, let me know.
Also… could we finally see a Russia–Ukraine ceasefire? A massive wildcard for oil market?