1. ADP Jobs Data: Tiny Estimate… Big Implications
Tomorrow, we get the ADP Non-Farm Payroll report for the U.S.
It’s unofficial and often very wrong compared to the official labour data — but it matters right now because official data is delayed.
Current estimate? Just 7,000 jobs (not a typo). If this is anywhere close to reality, it will be another clear sign the job market is turning fast.
Thursday, we also get the Challenger Job Cuts report, which should add more colour.
Keep in mind: the Federal Reserve has two mandates — inflation and employment. Employment is flashing yellow.
2. S&P 500 Selling: Volume Is Finally Showing Up
We saw a decent amount of selling yesterday — and importantly, on decent volume in the S&P 500.
Key thing to watch now: is there any follow-through? Or was it a one-day shakeout?
Remember: we bounced off the 50-day moving average on very low volume. Now that people are back at their desks, does that level get tested again?
Earnings estimates still look okay. Circular investments still getting attention.
3. Japanese Bond Yields Are Screaming… and No One’s Talking About It
Have you looked at long-term Japanese bond yields lately?
Something troubling is happening — and barely anyone is covering it.
- 10-Year JGB yields are up ~75 bps this year
- 30-Year yields are also surging
- Levels not seen in many years
You might say: “Moe, I’m in the U.S./Canada… why do I care?”
Because this ties directly into the yen carry trade. If that unwind accelerates, global markets feel it.
Spend a few minutes and Google/ChatGPT it — it’s worth it.
4. Silver Shortage Noise: Good or Bad? (Both.)
The silver shortage chatter is getting louder. But the enthusiasm is rising too — and that’s the concerning part. When crowds pile in, moves get amplified — both ways.
As silver gets wild, copper, platinum, and palladium are also feeling some effects. Worth watching.
Gold, meanwhile, is doing its own thing. Above $4,250, I think buyers step in and push it to all-time highs. But let’s see.
Don’t forget: a Fed decision is coming soon, and gold/silver have had their best run since 1979. Profit-taking can show up anytime.
5. Bitcoin Pullback: This Is When You Start Looking
Bitcoin is now down roughly $40,000 from its October highs. Painful to watch, and headlines are getting very pessimistic. Not hearing much “HODL” anymore — usually a sign to start paying attention.
Key levels:
- 75–80K = massive support
- Below that → $50Ks
Lots of noise on a possible Russia–Ukraine ceasefire/peace deal, and oil is reacting. But the overall trend on oil is still down.
Canadian dollar is trying to break out of its downtrend vs. USD.
U.S. 10-year yields back above 4%. And imagine if Japan has to sell Treasuries to calm its yields… or raise the yen? That would ripple everywhere.