1. U.S. Jobs Data Confirms the Cracks
We finally have official U.S. job numbers.
In October, over 100K jobs were lost. In November, 64K jobs were added, versus 51K expected.
The unemployment rate ticked up slightly. Once again, the trend suggests the U.S. job market is under pressure and going through a rough patch.
The one positive: unemployment remains relatively low—for now.
2. Thursday = Central Bank Heavyweight Day
Thursday is a big one.
Early in the morning, we get rate decisions from the Bank of England and the European Central Bank.
Then comes U.S. CPI, and remember—the market has been extremely reactive to inflation prints.
Later at night, we hear from the Bank of Japan. This matters. The BoJ is expected to hike, with odds near 97%. Last time Japan raised rates, the carry trade came into question. That’s something markets haven’t forgotten, right?!
3. Oil Breaks — And This Is Getting Serious
As I write this, WTI crude is trading at its lowest level since 2021, below major support around $56.50 that held for months.
WTI is currently around $55.55.
If dip buyers don’t step in, and there’s no noise around production cuts or geopolitical risk, don’t be shocked if WTI tests below $50.
Here’s the bigger picture: oil producers are seeing the price of what they sell decline. That hits revenue first, and eventually profitability. This is where quality over quantity matters. Producers can’t just shut off production overnight.
4. Canadian Rate Hike Talk Feels Premature
There’s a lot of noise around Canadian rate hikes.
For rates to move meaningfully higher, two things need to happen:
- Inflation expectations surge, and
- The Canadian economy overheats
If you think the Canadian economy is hot right now, I’d genuinely like to see the data you’re looking at.
Inflation expectations are hovering around 3% or lower.
If anything, rate hikes may not arrive until 2027. A lot would need to change. And don’t forget: highly leveraged Canadian consumers and businesses are still very much in the picture.
5. The Dollar Keeps Slipping — Watch This Level
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) continues to move lower. Once again, 96.5 is the key level to watch.
Why is the dollar falling? In my view, it’s more about what’s happening elsewhere. If rates rise or stay flat globally, while the Fed cuts, what do you think happens to the dollar?
It’s simplistic—but that’s likely the play at the moment.
We’re seeing the Euro, Pound, CAD, JPY, AUD, and NZD all rise against the USD. That’s exactly what the dollar index is showing.
However, if the dollar suddenly catches a bid, be careful. The U.S. dollar is still a safe-haven asset.