1. Back to Reality: Employment Data Takes Center Stage
Not much economic data today, but this is the first real day back after the holidays. That alone matters—because people will be looking/reassessing/adjusting.
Keep in mind: this is employment data week. On Friday, we get job numbers from both Canada and the U.S.
Big picture:
- The U.S. job market is starting to show headwinds
- Canada’s labor market has been volatile, but we’ve seen some recent improvement
2. Post-Holiday Chop: Eyes on the S&P 500’s Key Level
Stocks rallied into Christmas, but since then, we’ve seen choppier price action. The heavyweights aren’t catching much of a bid right now.
I’m watching the S&P 500’s 50-day moving average very closely—it’s coming back toward it again.
I’ve said this many times: the 50-day moving average has been a key technical level over the past few years. A decisive close below it has historically led to selling pressure.
3. Metals Are Heating Up—But Noise Is Rising
The metals market is on fire again.
Copper is leading the pack and just traded about a cent above its previous high (as I write this)
Silver is getting a lot of attention. There’s clearly investment buying, but it’s off the highs—this could turn into choppy consolidation.
Gold is also off its highs, with plenty of noise around it.
Platinum and palladium remain wild and volatile.
Lots of movement—but not all moves are clean.
4. Oil Headlines vs. Oil Reality
“Oil will fall like a rock.”
Why? Because the U.S. now has access to massive Venezuelan reserves, and Wall Street is reportedly on fact-finding missions there.
Let’s slow down.
If you think oil will start flowing like tap water in a few days, that’s naïve. It’s also critical to understand the type of oil Venezuela produces and the logistical challenges involved. Yes, more oil has technically become available, but there are still major uncertainties.
One important market reaction to watch: the Canadian dollar is down meaningfully today.
5. Frozen Housing, Rising Dollar, and Bigger Shifts Ahead
The Canadian housing market remains as frozen as the weather.
The U.S. Dollar Index has moved higher over the past few weeks. Key levels to watch: 96.50 on the downside, 100 on the upside.
After Venezuela, Greenland is apparently next?
The geopolitical backdrop is getting intense. It sounds extreme, but it feels like we’re heading toward a major global shift in the coming years. Can’t pinpoint exactly what—but a lot is happening. Or maybe we just know too much in real time.
Lastly: Bitcoin: $95,000 is a major level, and it’s trading above its 50-day moving average.