1. U.S. Jobs Data: The Real Test Starts Tomorrow
Not much economic data today, but starting tomorrow, we get real color on the U.S. labor market.
- Wednesday: ADP employment + JOLTS report
- Thursday: Challenger job cuts + initial jobless claims
- Friday: Non-Farm Payrolls + unemployment rate
Economics 101: a weakening job market increases the probability of lower inflation. The next few days matter because we know the overall trend isn’t looking good.
2. Metals Go Wild — Momentum vs Reality
The wild moves in metals continue.
- Copper is trading in uncharted territory
- Silver is making all the technical moves that suggest a push toward $80+ — but it needs a strong close above ATH for the truly explosive move
- Gold is still “up,” but momentum is fading — price says strength, momentum says buyer exhaustion
Momentum markets can stay hot — until they don’t. Just something to keep in mind.
3. Oil Jumps When Everyone Expected a Crash
Yesterday, oil rallied while just about everyone expected a gap down.
A few things to remember:
- Markets often do the opposite of consensus
- OPEC noise was in the background — no production increase
- No, oil is not about to flood the market
- And yes, there are serious questions about reserve sizes — there’s a reason why Wall Street is going “fact-finding missions”
That said, oil remains in a downtrend. The $56–$55 level is critical. A decisive close below it could get ugly fast.
4. Dow at ATHs While Everyone’s Bullish — Be Careful
The Dow Jones Industrial Average made a new all-time high, while the NASDAQ and S&P 500 lagged.
Yes, these indices are constructed differently — but context matters.
Heading into 2026, sentiment is extremely bullish. That alone should make investors cautious. Not “sell everything and run” — just respect risk.
One observation: Since 2008, the S&P 500 has seen a red year roughly every 2–3 years. The index has been up the last three years. Just an observation — nothing more. The last time index went up for more than three years in a row was back during 2003 and 2007.
5. Bitcoin, Japan Yields, Banks — A Lot Moving Under the Surface
Bitcoin is entering a critical zone near $95k. If it breaks and holds, a retest of $105k becomes likely imo.
Meanwhile, Japanese yields continue to rise — and that’s not something to ignore.
We also saw big moves in banks yesterday. Is this all due to markets pricing in deep rate cuts in 2026?
And finally — stablecoin regulation in Canada this year? Worth watching closely.