1. U.S. Jobs Data Is Cracking
The ADP report says the U.S. added just 41,000 jobs. The JOLTS report came in lower than expected, with 7.15 million job openings — the lowest level in a while.
- Tomorrow: Challenger Job Cuts Report
- Friday: Official Non-Farm Payrolls
The trend is deteriorating. The Fed’s dual mandate is inflation and jobs. Generally, fewer jobs / a cooler labor market = lower inflation. But the Fed also wants to avoid deflation.
2. Markets at Highs, Optimism at Extremes
U.S. equity indices are at or near all-time highs. It’s going so well that even President Trump is truthing about it.
Wall Street is already talking about a big 2026 rally.
Can markets go higher? Yes. But when you enter the optimism / euphoria phase, you’re in a frothy market. At this stage:
- Risk gets ignored
- Bearish voices disappear
Honest question: in the last three months, how many bearish takes on the stock market have you heard?
3. Metals Are Still All Over the Place
The metals market remains volatile:
- Silver is down
- Platinum and palladium are getting hit hard
- Copper is below $6.00/lb
- Gold continues to struggle around $4,500
4. Yields Aren’t Cooperating
Keep a close eye on bond yields in the coming days.
Consensus says the Fed will have to cut more than expected. Yet yields aren’t reacting the way you’d expect.
U.S. 10-Year (US10Y) still hovering above 4.15%
On another note: Japanese bond yields aren’t cooling.
5. FX, Oil, Housing & Geopolitics
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) remains under pressure.
Oil prices are coming down as supply noise increases, especially around Venezuelan crude.
This is impacting the Canadian dollar (CAD). Near term, I think 71.50 looks possible.
Toronto-area real estate: Sales down ~9% YoY (December), Prices down 5.1%, Inventory up over 10%.
PM Carney is visiting China next week. This will be worth watching — especially if some sort of Truths come towards Canada.