1. Silver: Too Much Noise, Too Much Volatility
There’s a lot of noise around silver right now.
Noise about rebalancing, noise around ETF selling, noise about India buying, China margins, and more.
All I’ll say is this: be careful. The average true range (ATR) on silver is now around 5%, which is big. Silver is very volatile relative to historical averages.
Allocate wisely.
2. Challenger Job Cuts: The Job Market Is Cracking
The Challenger job cuts report just delivered another warning signal:
- Lowest hiring in the U.S. since 2010
- Q4 2025 saw the highest layoffs since 2008
- 1.20 million job cuts announced in 2025 – Up 58% from 2024, Highest since 2020, 7th highest year since 1989
For context, the only years with higher job cuts: 2001, 2002, 2003, 2008, 2009, and 2020
This is more confirmation that the U.S. job market is weakening.
Tomorrow, we get more data. Does it make the trend even clearer?
3. Canada: Stability, Yes — Growth, Hard to See
Canadian jobs data has stabilized over the past three months.
My assumption? Businesses are betting/hoping that “some deal will be reached with the U.S.”, reducing anxiety.
So yes, the odds of another monthly job gain and lower unemployment are fairly high for tomorrow’s report. But again, we know Stats Canada’s numbers can be very wild at times.
But zoom out: Still no deal, noise around “taking over Canada” is increasing, Oil prices are declining, Venezuela crude will hurt Canadian oil? Plus, the U.S. economy is clearly cooling
At the moment, some stability has entered the Canadian economy. But make no mistake: It’s hard to see stellar growth in the near future. Really — what’s the catalyst?
4. Oil: Headlines vs Reality
Oil prices dropped after President Trump posted about the U.S. getting “quality” sanctioned oil from Venezuela.
Just so we’re clear: Heavy crude is not quality oil. It’s difficult to refine and doesn’t work well on its own.
If you’re playing oil, keep two things front and center:
- How does OPEC react?
- What’s happening in the global economy?
Also worth noting: Oil stocks over the past few days have been very, very interesting. They actually reacted to oil price.
5. Bitcoin, Dollar, Defense, Housing — All Connected
Once again, the $95k area proved to be a seller’s zone for Bitcoin. On the downside, I am watching $85k. If that breaks, things could get ugly very quickly.
Some life has returned to the U.S. dollar. The Dollar Index has crossed above its 200-day moving average (as I write this, but will it hold?)
President Trump increasing defense spending by 50% to $1.5 trillion. Is this anticipation of something bigger globally?
Also, Institutions banned from buying single-family homes. This announcement comes as housing is slowing in the U.S., and homebuilders stocks didn’t like this news yesterday.