1. Inflation Cools, But the Pressure Isn’t Gone
We now have some insight into U.S. consumer inflation.
In December, the headline CPI came in at 2.7% year-over-year, in line with expectations.
Core CPI was slightly lower than expected. Food and shelter were among the largest contributors to the CPI increase.
Today, we also get U.S. new home sales data. Keep in mind: $200 billion in non-government-backed QE could generate headlines.
Tomorrow, we get PPI and U.S. retail sales.
2. Carney in China: Optics Matter
PM Carney’s trip to China is a big deal.
My view: the recent tariff threats and even “takeover” rhetoric toward Canada likely stem from China’s influence and Canada’s historically soft stance.
Let’s see how this trip plays out. I fully expect more noise around tariffs and U.S.–Canada tensions.
Or… is Carney negotiating on behalf of the U.S.?
Potential upside:
- EVs → cheaper vehicles could be coming
- Possible relief for canola and pea farmers
3. Silver Is Getting Crowded
The gold-to-silver ratio is now around 52. That means it takes 52 ounces of silver to buy one ounce of gold.
Not long ago, this ratio was above 100.
Silver relative to gold is getting expensive. This should not be ignored.
Can silver go higher? Yes. I have said several times already: above $83–$85, $100 silver becomes realistic. But $200–$300 in the near term? Commodities get wild — and silver is doing exactly that.
Just don’t get run over if the move flips the other way.
4. S&P 500 at Highs, Breadth Says Otherwise
The S&P 500 is at all-time highs, great!
But, few things to note:
- Volume is trending lower → needs expansion for a sustained rally
- Fewer stocks are above their 200-day moving average than in August 2025
Big names like NVDA, AAPL, NFLX, and others are lagging.
Translation: market participants aren’t as excited as before.
5. Bitcoin Stalls, Oil Breaks, AI Evolves
Bitcoin has built a ceiling around $95,000. A clean break above could be violent — but will it happen?
The U.S. dollar index still looks constructive, though a lot is happening in the background.
Oil is breaking out of a mini-trend — worth watching closely. Is the market trying to price in war risk?
As for AI:
- Data centers look like the next phase
- But that story is already well known
- It may be time to look beyond the obvious