1. Silver: Volatility Is the Real Position
It is very important to understand that silver is volatile — average daily ranges are now 5–7%, and this shouldn’t be taken lightly. It means you are buying a lot of volatility with silver. You can be right, but it will still feel like a rollercoaster ride.
Beyond this, the gold-to-silver ratio is now roughly around 50. This ratio dropped as low as 34 in 2011, but only for a very brief period. Silver is getting expensive relative to gold.
Right now, the noise around why silver needs to go higher revolves around ETFs loading up, China, and geopolitics.
2. U.S. Data: Nothing Breaking, But Watch the Narrative
We got U.S. PPI for November — nothing out of the world, subdued at best. There wasn’t much reaction anywhere.
U.S. retail sales came in higher than expected — is the consumer still strong?
A bunch of Fed officials are speaking today, so watch the narrative, especially if there’s more noise around the Trump–Powell fiasco.
In Canada, wholesale and manufacturing sales data are due tomorrow. This could be interesting, as manufacturing sales have shown notable month-over-month declines.
3. Japan: Bond Yields Screaming, Yen Not Listening
Have you been keeping track of Japanese bond yields?
If not, 10-year Japanese yields are now at 2.18%, the highest level since around 1999. Japan’s 30-year bond yield is at 3.52%.
At the same time, the Japanese yen is hovering near its weakest level against the USD since the early 1990s.
In the midst of all this optimism, this story isn’t making headlines. We know there’s a carry trade here — but the real question is: what happens if it unwinds?
4. Canada Real Estate: Liquidity Is the Real Problem
Some private real estate funds in Canada are now restricting investor withdrawals.
How big are these funds? I’ve seen estimates around CAD $20–30 billion in AUM, though exact figures are unclear to me.
What matters more is the action. These funds are effectively saying they don’t want to sell assets, which signals serious liquidity stress. It suggests the market may be non-existent, and they’re trying to avoid a fire sale.
That raises the obvious question: is a fire sale coming?
We already knew there were issues in Canadian real estate — not surprising, but increasingly interesting.
5. Cross-Asset Check: Bitcoin, Oil, and Politics
Bitcoin is above $95,000 as I write this. If it can hold above that level, don’t be shocked to see a move toward $106–$107k, where the next major resistance sits.
WTI at $62 is a key level to watch. Geopolitics are back, and the oil market may be trying to price in war risk.
PM Carney is in China — expect noise from the U.S., unless he’s there doing some legwork for them as well.
Also worth noting: lower credit card fees can apparently impact the broader economy badly.