1. Canada: CPI is cooling — but don’t get too comfortable
Canadian CPI was released yesterday. Inflation came in at 2.1% for 2025, down from 2.4% in 2024 — the lowest annual increase since 2020.
Sounds encouraging, right? Dig a little deeper:
- Food prices are still rising — coffee, meat, fresh fruit all cost more.
- Energy prices fell, doing a lot of the heavy lifting.
- Shelter, a major contributor, cooled a bit in 2025.
Overall? Fine on the surface. But Canada’s consumer balance sheet remains the real problem. Don’t forget that.
2. U.S.: Quiet data, loud headlines
Not much hard data out of the U.S. today, but there’s plenty of noise:
- Greenland
- Europe starting to push back economically
- World Economic Forum chatter
Putting on my conspiracy hat for a second: Could this all be a head fake for something bigger? Maybe.
Yes, Greenland sovereignty should be respected. But is this really just about resources and “security,” or is there more beneath the surface? Or is this just pure political theatre?
One thing to watch closely: Trump’s approval ratings. If they fall below 35%, be careful. Also, don’t be shocked if $2,000 “tariff dividend” checks start showing up before midterms.
3. Silver and gold: strong — but crowded
Silver continues to show stellar performance, trading near $95 as I write this.
Gold has also surged above $4,750 — is $5,000 next?
There are solid fundamental reasons to own these metals. But let’s be honest — there’s a lot of “it’s going up, so I’m buying,” happening too. That’s what creates wild swings.
Great if you already own it. Dangerous if you chase it. Check your allocations. Consider stops. Don’t get run over.
4. S&P 500: 50-day moving average matters
The S&P 500 is testing its 50-day moving average.
- A close below it? Be ready for some solid red days.
- A hold above it? Don’t be shocked if buyers step right back in.
This level has been very telling over the past few years.
5. Bitcoin: warned
Bitcoin couldn’t hold $95k — and you were warned. It’s now hovering around its 50-day moving average.
- If that breaks → next real support is around $85k.
- On the upside, $95k remains a major level that needs to be broken before any major upside.
Trump wants lower rates — but his actions are doing the opposite. If stimulus comes in and geopolitical madness continues (Greenland, Europe retaliation), yields go higher.
And not surprising at all: as PM Carney finalized a deal with China, the “51st state” noise got louder.