1. Metal Meltdown: Panic or Opportunity?
As I write this, silver is down 15%, and gold is down 6%.
The moves we’re seeing in the metals are roughly twice the range of the past couple of weeks. Very significant—and a clear sign that there’s panic selling.
Now, what’s next? Don’t say you weren’t warned about this kind of move. These are meaningful declines, and prices would really have to break above today’s range to attract buyers.
That said, if this selling turns into dip buying today, then silver at $150 shouldn’t be ruled out, and gold at $6,000+ could come sooner than many expect.
2. Central Banks Pause
Both the Fed and the Bank of Canada held interest rates steady.
Apparently, gold and silver are selling off on news around the Fed’s new appointee and the idea of a “more independent Fed.” What?!
Also, keep in mind that a bunch of Fed officials are speaking, so watch the narrative closely.
On the Canadian side:
- GDP was unchanged in November
- Early estimates suggest a 0.1% increase in December
- October saw a 0.3% decline
The manufacturing sector is feeling the most pain, with forestry, agriculture, and wholesale trade also facing headwinds.
3. Too Many Eggs in One Basket
Yesterday was a textbook example of what happens when markets have too much concentration.
Microsoft disappointed, and that led to a sell-off across the board.
What’s next for the stock market? Look at the 50-day moving average on the S&P 500. As soon as prices got close to it yesterday, buyers stepped in aggressively. That continues to tell me there’s something important there – dip buyers.
A decisive move below this moving average, however, could open the door to more downside.
4. Yields Are Telling a Story—Don’t Ignore It
Have you been paying attention to yields—especially the U.S. 10-year?
Look, nothing has been able to bring yields down, and that shouldn’t be taken lightly. At its core, 10-year yields are signaling “higher for longer.” That’s the message right now.
But the real question is: what breaks this narrative?
Also, keep an eye on Japanese yields. Intervention talk has brought some calm, but this likely isn’t over—especially with carry trades still in question.
Canadian yields matter too, particularly with another year of massive mortgage renewals ahead.
5. Bitcoin, the Dollar, and a Frozen Housing Market
Bitcoin is trying to bounce off a key support level. 83–85k is critical and worth watching closely.
The Canadian dollar is breaking (at least a short-term downtrend) against the USD.
Apparently, some realtors were hoping the stress test would be removed. For now, the Canadian housing market remains largely non-existent: Condos are still in a world of pain, but freeholds are relatively okay
On the geopolitical front: possible de-escalation in Russia–Ukraine? The Trump administration still wants to bomb Iran?