1. Canadian Housing Softness + More
Canadian new home prices registered another month-over-month decline. Not shocking at all, really.
Tomorrow, we get Canadian retail sales.
On the U.S. side tomorrow, there’s a bunch of data — from new home sales to consumer sentiment, to advanced GDP and the Core PCE Index — the inflation measure the Federal Reserve actually cares about.
Big picture U.S.: data isn’t showing robust growth, and some suggest some sort of slowdown is imminent. As this happens, the Fed is split — should it cut or should it wait?
2. War Risk Brewing? Oil Markets Think So
We could be on the cusp of a major war.
Why? As it stands, the U.S. is building one of the biggest arsenals in the Middle East since the war in Iraq. This is happening despite Iran and the U.S. being at the table with some negotiation taking place.
In light of this, the oil market is trying to price in some sort of war. Oil prices are really moving, and charts are starting to turn bullish. An actual war could send oil prices even higher, with the Strait of Hormuz closure in question.
Also, higher oil prices would be bad for President Trump’s popularity… which has been dwindling. And war might hurt it more, as Americans are already struggling with inflation.
3. Metals Check: Support Holding, Momentum Fading
Silver continues to show solid support between $70 and $72. However, if you notice, silver continues to make lower highs since the beginning of February. In addition, there’s a lot of choppiness here.
Gold seems okay — it’s off the highs, but the chart does not seem broken. Lots of support around the 50-day moving average.
Copper — off the highs too, but remains a hot commodity for now. As this happens, exchanges have some record-high stockpiles and smelter activity is slowing. Something to keep in mind.
4. Japan Bond Auction Sends Quiet Warning
Japan last night did a long-term bond sale.
The bid-to-cover was the lowest, apparently, since May 2025.
Why does this matter? Even at higher yields, Japan isn’t able to attract investors. Does it mean investors want higher yields?
Keep the big picture in mind: there’s a carry trade here. Could that unravel as interest rates go haywire a bit?
Once again, in my opinion, this remains one of the most underreported/overlooked stories out there.
5. Bitcoin, Dollar & Credit Markets Flash Signals
Bitcoin couldn’t break $70K. $65K is looking like a decent support level for now. But keep an eye on $62K. That’s really the big support level. If that breaks, we could be looking at $55K Bitcoin very quickly.
The U.S. Dollar Index briefly broke below 96.50, but is now above it. Watching it closely.
Another underrated story: CDS for tech companies are seeing volume. That shows there’s some concern as hyperscalers and others are borrowing tons of money to fund their growth.
Another story to keep in mind: private equity and their exposure to software companies. The bloodbath we recently saw — one has to wonder how it impacts the PE universe… and who is swimming naked.