1. Canadian Data: Retail Sales, Sentiment & Inflation Pressures
Canadian retail sales dropped 0.4% in December. They were up just 0.1% in Q4 2025. Looking at early estimates for January retail sales, they increased 1.5%.
I can’t stress this enough: Canada has a big sentiment problem. It’s been dire, but I think it’s improving now. Just look at how Canadians approve of PM Mark Carney’s work. This is a step in the right direction.
We also got the Producer Price Index (PPI) for Canada. Wow — big increases compared to what was expected.
- Raw material prices went up 7.7%
- Manufacturing prices went up 2.7%
2. U.S. Watchlist: Slowing Growth & Geopolitical Risk
On the U.S. side, there are a few things to keep in mind:
- Q4 GDP came in much slower than Q3
- A few Fed officials are speaking
- The U.S. is on the cusp of another regime-change war
Could it happen over the weekend? There has been an immense weapons buildup. American taxpayers are also about to go deeper into debt.
Another war could hurt Trump’s approval rating further. An approval rating of 35% or lower may not be welcomed by the stock market.
3. Stock Market Technicals: Rotation & Risk
We now have 5 consecutive closes below the 50-day moving average on the S&P 500. Today will likely be the 6th — unless there’s some sort of de-escalation around war.
- NASDAQ Composite is making lower highs
- Dow Industrials are holding up well
- Energy, Materials, and Industrials are currently leading
We are seeing the classic “sell the performers, buy the laggards” rotation — something I’ve talked about before.
Also, watch for a possible puke moment in the stock market between now and April.
4. Commodities Check: Silver, Gold, Uranium & Coffee
- Silver — serious base-building, or at least it seems that way for now. It still needs to clear $85–$90 for relief. Still very choppy.
- Gold — moving sideways, but it doesn’t look broken. Sentiment remains strong.
- Uranium — lots of buzz around “tech companies going after uranium.” Keep in mind, they need energy. This noise makes me a little skeptical. But you can’t have nuclear power without uranium.
- Coffee prices are down roughly 35% from October 2025 highs.
5. Crypto, Oil & Canadian Housing: Pressure Points
- Bitcoin held $65K again. The range seems to be between $65K and $70K for now. Once again, what’s the catalyst for a big move?
- Oil is trending up. The oil market is pricing in war. The next big resistance level is likely around $72.
- Private credit woes
- Alien files
- Canadian housing market — January was a big punch in the face. Sales and prices declined, while inventory rose.