1. Housing Cooling, Fed Speak & Trade Watch
U.S. home prices continue to cool a little bit — data confirmed that again this morning. It’s not a collapse situation, but the housing market is stalling a bit. Obviously, higher rates aren’t helping.
A bunch of Fed officials are speaking again today. Watch the narrative more than anything else.
For Canada, there isn’t much economic data. However, PM Carney is leaving for a few countries. Potential for some trade deals.
2. S&P 500 Rejection at the 50-Day Moving Average
If you’re a chart watcher, you probably noticed: the S&P 500 was once again rejected at the 50-day moving average. Don’t take this lightly. We keep getting rejected here.
6,800 is a big level on the S&P 500. A break below it could bring it down to 6,500 very quickly.
Also, don’t be shocked if markets get a “punch in the face” between now and April.
Why do I say this? Have you noticed how fast the market is panicking on AI-related news? Take a look at IBM for example — worst day in history. I think the market is showing its hand. Let’s see.
3. Metals at Key Levels — Don’t Get Run Over
$90 is a big level to watch on silver. Getting close to it. A close above potentially takes it back to all-time highs. There’s a lot of noise and participation here. All I have to say though is… do not get run over.
Gold broke $5,100 yesterday, but retracing a bit today. Watching closely. Also keep in mind that everyone and their grandparents have targets at $6,000.
Platinum and palladium are both choppy but still trading around the 50-day moving average.
Cooling in uranium prices.
4. State of the Union & Rising Political Risk
Donald Trump delivers the State of the Union address today.
It is widely expected that he will talk about how he has fixed the economy, how tariffs are good for Americans, and obviously about geopolitical situations… including how a war with Iran could be good. American public however is thinking differently.
Trump’s approval ratings continue to come down, and disapproval ratings keep rising. This is happening with midterms coming up. Will the Republicans ditch Trump? Very likely — and even more likely in case the U.S. gets into a bigger war with Iran.
5. Bitcoin Breakdown, Yen Watch & Big Tech Moves
Bitcoin broke below $65K, and now trading around $62.5K as I write. Be very careful in case there’s a move below $60K. It could drop hard.
Keeping a watch on the Japanese Yen. Against the USD, it’s setting up to drop a bit.
Jamie Dimon on private credit: people doing dumb things, resembling the pre-financial crisis era.
Advanced Micro Devices and Meta Platforms deal on the eve of Nvidia earnings. Let’s see how that plays out.