1. Economic Data — Tariffs Are Back, Messier Than Before
Slow data day, but the macro backdrop is anything but quiet.
The Supreme Court struck down Trump’s emergency tariffs last Friday. By Saturday, he reimposed them at 15% under a different legal authority. So tariffs are back — just messier, and still very much uncertain.
- US labor market showing early improvement? — unemployment claims come in better than expected.
- Tomorrow: we get Canadian GDP and U.S. PPI.
Big picture: Looks like the Fed on holds through at least June. No rate cuts coming until the tariff picture clears up…again.
2. Stock Market — Nvidia Beat, Market Shrugged
Nvidia posted a blowout quarter — $68.1B revenue, data center up 75%, guidance above estimates. Being dubbed as “the best beat in semis history.” But, the stock is down 5%. Let that sink in.
This is the market showing its hand. Sell the news — even on a record print.
- S&P 500 stuck between 6,800–7,000 for weeks. That range needs to break
- 6,800 is the key downside level — breaks there and 6,500 comes fast
Five consecutive quarters of double-digit earnings growth. Fundamentals aren’t the problem. Macro noise is.
Again, don’t be shocked if we get some sort of punch in the face move on stock market between now and April – watch the market’s hand.
3. Commodities — Gold Holding, Oil Watching Geneva
Gold around $5,200 today — resilient. $5,100 is the key support for now. Everyone’s got a $6,000 target. Not saying they’re wrong, but the road won’t be straight. And, will we get there if there’s some sort of broad market selling?
Silver at $87 — still watching $90 as the breakout level. Yesterday, it did not close above $90. The COMEX squeeze noise is losing steam quick.
Oil is the interesting one today. Trading down and then jumped. Iran war premium. The Geneva talks happening right now will move this market — one way or another.
4. Big Picture — The Geneva Moment
US-Iran nuclear talks are happening today in Geneva. Third round. Witkoff and Kushner at the table. Reports say both sides are still far apart.
Why does this matter beyond oil?
- Strait of Hormuz — 31% of global seaborne crude flows through it
- The US Navy’s 5th Fleet is fully deployed — all vessels out at sea as of this week. Kinda locked and loaded situation here.
- Saudi Arabia is pre-emptively ramping exports in case Iran supply gets disrupted
The clock is ticking. If talks collapse, markets will feel it everywhere in my opinion — oil, gold, equities, currencies etc. Though, really hoping war doesn’t happen.
5. Currencies, Bitcoin & Related
Bitcoin is around $66,000 as I write — bouncing after a rough stretch. Still down roughly 26% year-to-date and about 47% off the October high. $60,000 remains the line in the sand. Below it, mid-to-low $50K range is very possible. Be careful.
- US Dollar Index somewhat stable. But, chart is little bit damaged.
- CAD/USD — watching closely. Finding support at 50-day moving average.
- Japanese Yen seems to be weakening a bit against the USD. Lets see. Nikkei just hit an all-time highs.