1. The Strait of Hormuz Shutdown Nobody Wants to Talk About
The Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed — not because anyone physically blocked it, but because insurance has pulled out.
Twenty percent of global oil supply runs through that strait, and crude tanker transits dropped from 24 ships a day to four in one weekend.
WTI is sitting near $74.50 this morning, but Wall Street strategists are quietly putting $100+ scenarios on the table if this drags on for weeks.
Trump says the Navy will escort tankers through the strait. Let’s see. So far everything has been going great, right? This will as well?
2. Gold at $5,162 — and It’s Not Done
Gold hit an intraday record near $5,400 recently, but now pulling back to around $5,160 as I write this. Essentially saying people aren’t panicking anymore?
Silver remains in a price discovery mode.
Watching copper closely. It did close below its 50-day moving average. Currently retesting. Lets see.
Big story in the commodities world ex-oil is the U.S. dollar at the moment. If dollar eases (seems like its doing right now), don’t be shocked to see commodities ex-oil catching a bid. I single out oil because its geopolitical and war premium play at the moment.
3. Canada Making Deals
PM Carney is out there making deals as Trump’s tariff fiasco and now a new war continues. This is net positive for Canada, as it shows there’s diversification in trade partners. Also, Canada very quickly looks like a super reliable energy partners compare to GCC. But, we do lack pipelines.
Big picture: hard to see Canada’s trade with U.S. going back to normal anytime soon. Also, the best thing for Canada was to just ride this out until mid-terms? After mid-terms, could trump’s view be completely different?
Also keep in mind that the Bank of Canada is navigating a near-impossible situation: an economy expected to grow a measly amount this year, trade war continues, now geopolitical issues, and ailing housing market.
4. The Bond Market Is Defying the Safe-Haven Playbook
This one doesn’t make headlines, but it should. The U.S. 10-year yield jumped from 3.96% at the end of February to 4.10% this week — and bonds did not rally even as a war began.
Let that sink in.
Treasuries are supposed to be the flight-to-safety trade. Instead, bond holders are demanding an inflation premium to compensate for $80 Brent crude? When the traditional safe-haven playbook breaks down, that’s a signal worth watching closely.
Becomes more interesting as we are seeing implosion in private credit. What is happening to “quality,” bonds? Or is this just a short-term blip. Watch bonds market – it can move markets.
5. The S&P 500 Is Flat — Is That Confidence or Complacency?
Keeping a watch on the S&P 500 – it has recovered from a big support level, but still remains below its 50-day moving average.
There’s a lot of headline watching as well.
I ask: are we getting confidence back or market is complacent – all dips are worth buying?
Watching 6,800 on the S&P 500. A move below it, as I have said many times, can be dangerous. Yesterday, it looked like it broke, but then the dip buyers took over.