Six warnings. Dated and documented. If you want the next one before it happens — that’s what Tactical Trader Notes is built for.
The S&P 500 closed at 6,506 on March 20, 2026.
That’s down 6.2% from its all-time high of 6,939 set on January 27. Down 5.3% from the first time I flagged the warning signs in early January. Down 364 points in just over two months.
I’m not writing this to gloat. I’m writing this because this is exactly what this publication is about — cutting through the noise, calling things as I see them, and giving you the analysis before it becomes obvious to everyone else.
So let’s go through the tape.
| From first warning → March 20 close −5.3% 6,870 (Jan 7) → 6,506 · −364 points |
| From ATH → March 20 close (peak-to-trough) −6.2% 6,939 (Jan 27) → 6,506 · −433 points |
January 7 — “Euphoria”
The S&P 500 was sitting near all-time highs. Wall Street was talking about a massive 2026 rally. Trump was posting about markets. Everyone was excited.
When you enter the euphoria phase, risk gets ignored and bearish voices disappear.
I asked readers directly — in the last three months, how many bearish takes on the stock market had they heard? Almost none. That’s the warning sign. The S&P 500 was at around 6,870 that day.
January 20 & 21 — The 50-Day MA & “Sell America”
The S&P 500 was testing its 50-day moving average. I flagged it clearly:
A close below it? Be ready for some solid red days.
A day later, the phrase “Sell America” was getting louder in global markets. Foreign investors were starting to question U.S. assets. I told readers: if that trade ever gets pulled, expect higher yields and a weaker dollar. It wasn’t a prediction. It was a heads up.
February 24 — Rejection. And a Specific Prediction.
The S&P 500 kept getting rejected at the 50-day moving average. Over and over. That’s a broken market. I wrote:
Don’t be shocked if markets get a punch in the face between now and April.
I also noted that IBM had its worst day in history on AI-related news. The market was showing its hand. It was.
March 3 — 6,800 Breaks
I had been flagging 6,800 as the key level for weeks. When it broke, I wrote:
S&P 500 has broken below 6,800. You have been warned.
From there, the market moved fast. The Iran war, oil shock, hawkish Fed, private credit stress — it all piled on at once. That’s how these things go. They don’t break slowly. They break all at once.
March 19 & 20 — New 2026 Lows
The S&P 500 closed at 6,606 on March 19. Then 6,506 on March 20. New lows. The 200-day moving average is now being tested. A clean break below that level opens the door to more selling. I’m watching it closely.
What’s the Lesson?
Markets don’t crash without warning. The warnings are always there — in the technicals, in the sentiment, in the macro data. Most people just aren’t watching the right things. Or they’re too caught up in the excitement to act on what they’re seeing.
Euphoria is not a buy signal. A crowded market is not a safe market. And when the same key level gets rejected three, four, five times — that’s not noise. That’s the market telling you something.
The job market was cracking in January. Yields weren’t cooperating. The “Sell America” narrative was building. The 50-day moving average was broken. Private credit was under stress. None of this was hidden. It was all there, in plain sight, for anyone paying attention.
* Annualized rates extrapolate the short-term decline over a full year. Not a forward return forecast.
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S&P 500 price chart January to March 2026 with Zulfiqar Research warnings marked
What Comes Next?
I’m not calling a bottom. I’m not calling a crash. What I will tell you is this: the 200-day moving average is the next line in the sand. Markets are under pressure from multiple directions simultaneously — oil, yields, geopolitics, and private credit. That doesn’t resolve overnight.
The opportunities are coming. Good companies go on sale in moments like this. But you need to be watching the right things, at the right time, with a clear head.
That’s what Tactical Trader Notes and Patient Capital Letter are built for. Short-term trade ideas and long-term opportunities — identified before they become obvious. First issue April 1st. If you’ve been reading these daily posts and finding value in them, this is the next level. Specific ideas. Specific levels. No fluff.
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. All analysis is for informational and educational purposes only. Always do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions. See zulfiqarresearch.com/disclaimer for full terms.