1. The Iran Story Is Moving Fast — Don’t Get Caught on the Wrong Side of It
Trump posted over the weekend that he’d had “productive conversations” with Iran and was postponing U.S. strikes on Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure for five days.
S&P 500 futures immediately surged. Oil (WTI) plunged more than 10%.
Then Iranian state media came out and said there were no talks. Just like that, futures gave back more than half their gains and oil clawed back a chunk of its drop. As I write this, WTI is around $90, down from the $100+ territory it was threatening when Iran closed — or threatened to close — the Strait of Hormuz. The first move in a geopolitical headline can sometime be very wrong.
Is this all over? Likely not. But narrative has changed. There’s willingness of calming things a bit.
2. Gold’s Worst Week in 15 Years — The Bull Isn’t Dead, But It Needs a Breather
Gold just posted its worst weekly performance since 2011 — down nearly 10% in a single week. Here’s the counterintuitive part: oil surging to $100+ is actually bearish for gold in the short run. Soaring crude raises inflation fears, which kills rate-cut hopes, which hurts a metal that pays you “nothing.”
Key levels to watch here is $4,400 – that’s the early February low.
If that breaks, then $4,100 is a big big level – its where the 200-day moving average sits.
Keep in mind, all major banks are still sitting at close to $6,000 gold. So, with this dip in price, we could be getting dip-buyers. Oh, and also, gold is bordering bear-market territory too – down 20% from highs.
3. Silver Got Absolutely Run Over — Watch This Level
Silver has been hit even harder than gold.
The metal is down roughly 44% from its peak and is hovering around $67 this morning — still trying to find footing.
Silver has more industrial exposure than gold, so the fear of an oil-driven economic slowdown is piling on top of the rate-cut story. As you have been warned, don’t get run over here. Allocate wisely.
Level to watch: $64.00 on the downside. If that level breaks, there could easily be more pain here – possible move all the way down to $52.
But also, if there are bearish headlines for oil, don’t be shocked to see silver finding some dip buyers. Now, will have to see how it reacts around $70-$72 on the upside.
4. Four Straight Weekly Losses For The S&P 500
The S&P 500 has posted four consecutive weekly declines. Four. In a row.
Last week the index dropped 1.9%, with the NASDAQ and Dow both following. And here’s what really matters: the S&P closed last week at roughly 6,506 — already sitting below its 50-day moving average and still below the 200-day moving average.
Technically speaking, these two moving averages are now resistance, not support.
Could what we are seeing today be a dead-cat bounce? Yes, very possible. But, again, don’t forget that narrative has changed possibly and that could bring some confidence into the market. Stagflation risk still there. Yields remain elevated. Economy is still in rough shape.
On an interesting note: each rally over the past four weeks was sold.
5. The 10-Year Is at 4.39% — Rate Cuts Are a Fantasy Right Now
Here’s what’s really holding this whole setup together — and not in a good way.
The U.S. 10-year yield hit 4.39% last week, its highest level since July 2025. When oil is $90+ and energy prices are running hot, inflation doesn’t come down — and the Fed stays frozen.
They already signaled just one rate cut for all of 2026. One. The DXY (U.S. Dollar Index) spiked above 101 at peak Iran panic before pulling back to little over 99.0 now. Higher yields, a strong dollar, and elevated oil is a brutal cocktail for equities, housing, and anything rate sensitive. Oh and don’t forget the private credit either. That is still a thing.
And for anyone still assuming the Bank of Canada is going to ride to the rescue on Canadian real estate — the BoC is stuck in the same trap. Something to think about.