1. Wild Trip In Gold – Is It Over?
Gold made a high of $5,608 on January 30th and made a low of $4,098 on March 23rd.
This is $1,510 move, happened over 36 sessions.
As it stands, gold is trading at $4,430 – down 21% from the highs and up around 8% from lows.
Now, this is a wild move and will go in the books. It makes sense why ETFs are seeing outflows too. But, the big question: is the bull market in gold over?
Our view: it depends on what’s your timeline and how easy you can be shaken. Long-term bull market isn’t over – trends remain in place, and uncertainty hasn’t left, big picture fundamentals remain in place for now. Short-term, there could be more volatility, but this is a blessing in disguise for those who are focused long-term.
2. Oil Is the Story Behind Every Story Right Now
WTI is bouncing a little, at around $96 at the time of writing. This is even with President Trump extending the timeline for U.S. strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure.
That’d be seen as some relief — but oil market has few questions. How does this war end? Who will control Strait of Hormuz? Boots on the ground can end badly, energy infrastructure in the region can take years to build if regional war escalates etc.
The Strait of Hormuz crisis has disrupted close to 20% of global oil supply, tanker traffic is still a fraction of normal, and the damage to the inflation picture is already done. This oil shock is stagflationary — it hits growth and prices at the same time.
On a very interesting note: apparently few Chinese ships were stopped today. That’s a story worth keeping an eye on…unless its all just noise and nothing else.
3. NASDAQ in Correction — The 50-Day Is the Line to Watch
The NASDAQ composite has officially entered correction territory this week.
S&P 500 not there yet. Dow is down roughly 5,000 points from 50,000.
Tech is leading the selloff — the mega-caps that drove everything higher aren’t saving anyone on the way down. Not shocking really.
Right now, the only sector everyone is talking about is energy. Everything else isn’t apparently worth looking.
4. The Fed Is Trapped — And the Bond Market Is Pricing Stagflation?
The Fed held rates at 3.5%–3.75% in March and Powell downplayed stagflation risks — but the bond market isn’t buying it.
Rate cut odds for 2026 have collapsed big time. And, it may sound crazy right now but odds of a rate hike starting in June are starting to increase.
This is the impossible math of stagflation: you can’t cut into reaccelerating inflation, and you can’t hike into a slowing economy — odd of something breaking in midst of all this also increase.
Cracks showing up in the stock market, private credit etc. Could something bigger be next?
5. Reality of The Once Great Canadian Housing Market
While everyone is focused on oil and what’s happening with U.S.10-year Treasury yield, Canadian 5-year bond yields – which impact mortgage rates, are climbing too. Up 50bps since the beginning of March.
TD came out saying they now expect sales and prices falling as pent-up demand didn’t show up.
Now, with the new GST credit fiasco, everyone is convinced housing market makes a comeback.
Look, if you are hoping for moves like 2021-2022, you are fooling no one but yourself. It’s not just rate/gst issue. There’s more to housing than just a good headline. It will likely take years for the Canadian housing market to recover.