1. Oil: The Biggest One-Day Drop in Years — and It’s Already Reversing
Oil had one of the biggest down days in recent years, with WTI closing at $96.50 per barrel after the US–Iran ceasefire announcement. But as I write this Thursday morning, crude is already bouncing back — up over 5% — because Iran is now saying the U.S. violated the deal.
There are still 100s of tankers sitting anchored in the Persian Gulf, loaded and waiting to move.
The Strait of Hormuz — which handles about 20% of global oil supply — isn’t open yet. Don’t be surprised if this whole thing whipsaws again hard. It’s all developing.
2. S&P 500… Relief Rally? But On What Foundation?
The S&P 500 surged 2.51% Wednesday, closing at 6,782, and the Dow had its best single day since April 2025 — up over 1,300 points.
Markets loved the ceasefire news. But let’s be clear: the ceasefire is already showing cracks within 24 hours. Iran’s parliamentary speaker went public saying the U.S. breached the deal, and Israel’s Lebanon operations are still going – ruthless bombing in minutes, killing hundreds.
Rallies built on fragile geopolitical headlines are exactly the kind that give it back fast.
Interesting to note: S&P 500 did close above its 50-day moving average and the 200-day moving average… leaving a massive gap. This gap needs to be closed first before a sustained move up if we get it.
Don’t overlook the big macro picture either.
3. Metals- What’s Moving Them?
Gold and Silver are highly reactive to oil and dollar. You just can’t ignore it.
This is what we know: any headline that’s been moving oil and dollar, it is also causing selling in gold and silver. Regardless though, both metals are up big year-over-year – trends still pointing upwards.
Levels to watch on gold: $4,400 is acting as strong support for now, but will it hold if we keep getting bad news? Also, draw a Fib retracement from high on January 29th and lower on March 23rd, and take a look at what happened yesterday – 50% was rejected.
Levels to watch on silver: $75 is looking like a big resistance level for now. Support at $70-66. But, overall silver is looking fragile.
4. The Dollar Below 100: A Number That Matters
The DXY (U.S. Dollar Index) is sitting very close to 99.0 — below the key 100 level. That might not sound dramatic, but it is. A dollar breaking below 100 reflects a market questioning U.S. safe-haven status — a mix of geopolitical uncertainty, fiscal concerns, and a Fed that hasn’t been able to cut as aggressively as markets once hoped.
A weaker dollar and wild oil could be super inflationary in the near-term. While the economy seems to be lowing and the 10-year Treasury yield is still sitting around 4.3% — not exactly signalling economic tranquility.
On top of this, add private credit related issues that are in the making.
Its time like these when something breaks. So much going on.
5. Canada: Politics, Rates, and a Housing Market That’s Still Not Fixed
Mark Carney is sitting on a big lead over Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives as he keeps losing his MPs. A lot of that support for Carney is Trump-driven: every time Washington does something erratic, Canadians rally behind the steady-hand narrative. Plus, I think Canadians do appreciate the work Mark Carney is doing.
The Bank of Canada is sitting at 2.25% with its next decision on April 29 — markets are pricing no change. Unemployment getting close to 7%, and the economy is soft. But oil prices aren’t helping.
As for Canadian housing — the average home price is down. Be careful. “Lower rates” haven’t saved the market the way bulls expected, inventory is still elevated in key cities, and a wave of mortgage renewals is still working its way through the system. This isn’t a soft landing story — it’s a slow deflation.