1. U.S. Retail Sales Look Good… For Now?
March retail sales for the U.S. were reported this morning – headline figure up 1.7% and core retail sales ere up 1.9% from February. Year-over-year, core sales are up 4.2%.
On the surface, the American consumer is holding up well. But here’s what I’m thinking: with oil elevated and an Iran ceasefire that could blow up by Wednesday, how much of this spending is people front-running prices rather than genuine confidence? Don’t forget that retail sales is a lagging indicator.
Next two- three month could be critical to watch. Also, keep a watch on consumer sentiment numbers.
Side note: U.S. pending home sales get reported today as well. Could give some insights into how Americans are feeling, and what’s happening with the housing market.
2. The Warsh Hearing Today Is More Important Than Markets Are Pricing
The U.S. 10-year yield is sitting at 4.25%.
Today’s Senate confirmation hearing for Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair is also scheduled.
Warsh is seen as more dovish than Powell.
The problem: you’ve got inflation creeping back up potentially from the oil shock at the same time you might be getting a more accommodative Fed. That’s a tricky combination.
But, generally Fed chairman tone changes as soon as they are in the seat. So, let’s see. President Trump will love lower rates, but if Fed listens, it also questions the independence of the Fed.
3. Bitcoin’s Above The Range – Gold Under Pressure
Bitcoin is trading around $76,000 this morning, but it remains just above the range it had been stuck for a while. It’s worth watching – on tech rally and just some risk off event, it could shoot to $85,000 very quickly.
Gold has been extremely choppy, and if you have been following the 50-day moving average, you will notice that it just can’t get past it. Worth watching closely. The longer it remains below it, the more it can make people nervous. A sustained move above the 50-day moving average could be very encouraging.
Silver: we are getting a lot of good news. China imports are increasing, major news outlet also reported that silver was in a deficit for fifth consecutive years (were the reporting on this over the past few years?). With good news silver isn’t really skyrocketing. Some caution may not be a bad idea here.
Copper is stuck at $6.00. This is probably the underreported/overlooked metal right now. Keeping a watch. Potential for big move up, and down.
4. Housing Is Stalling on Both Sides of the Border
U.S. housing market is seeing it’s fair share of complications. Sales aren’t that great, and mortgage rates are still high. Demand is low, and sellers aren’t willing to budge.
Zillow is expecting home prices to grow 0.3% in 2026. It’s home sales forecast is pretty bleak too.
In Canada, CREA recently downgraded its forecast too. Expects home price to increase 1.5%, and now growth in BC, Alberta, and Ontario. Keep in mind: TD also revised its outlook not too long ago. More will likely follow.
A lot of people for some reason forgot that rate cycles do their thing. We are seeing that happen in housing market in Canada and U.S. However, this is potentially a great time to look if you are buyer, and math works in your favor.
5. Earnings Season Is Picking Up — And Good Isn’t Going to Be Enough
Netflix beat estimates last week and the stock still dipped. That’s a message.
At these valuations, meeting the bar doesn’t get you rewarded — you have to clear it by a big margin.
Alphabet, Amazon & Microsoft report on April 29th. Big names on one day.
But keep in mind: earnings season mean higher stock specific risk. Also, Strait of Hormuz is still closed, and deadline for ceasefire is approaching. Lots of cloud growth and AI monetization noise out there. If guidance starts coming in soft, the math on these multiples gets uncomfortable fast.