1. War Is Back On? Watch Oil
Trump says the MOU is over.
This means if Trump’s rhetoric doesn’t change in the coming minutes or hours, then oil is going to catch a bid.
Keep in mind, the Strait of Hormuz doesn’t have to close. Just one or two ships need to get hit, and everything comes to a stop.
2. Fed Minutes Today… But Will Anyone Care?
The Fed meeting minutes are out today, but will the market care much given the war is back on?
Keep in mind, very few out there now think interest rates can go higher. Rhetoric is changing.
The inflation noise is getting louder.
However, know that there’s demand destruction happening too.
Can’t stress this enough: this is all headline-driven excitement right now. We’ll have to see if it lasts.
3. Gold and Silver Under Pressure
Gold is off its overnight lows but is still trading in the red.
Again, if long oil is the trade, then we know gold has been trading inversely to it. $4,000 is the big level to watch.
Silver is selling off a bit too. Technically, silver continues to look worse.
4. Don’t Say You Weren’t Warned
Zulfiqar Research has been warning that chip and memory stocks were becoming a mania and showing signs of a bubble. There’s been a lot of selling in those names, even with all the good news. A bunch of them are now in bear markets.
As for the S&P 500, 7,600 remains the big hurdle on the upside. On the downside, we are watching the 50-day moving average.
Right now, it feels like there’s very little excitement for higher prices.
5. Currency Watch: Yen, Bitcoin & the Canadian Dollar
The Japanese yen selling off a bit.
Is Bitcoin starting another move lower? Another test around $63,000 failed.
The Canadian dollar (CAD) can’t find buyers. It’s been very choppy. 0.70 against the U.S. dollar is a major level. A break below it could be dangerous. Might want to look at U.S. dollar GICs. 😉