1. It’s Fed Day
It’s Fed day today.
We will likely get an initial move at 2:00 p.m. EST, followed by another as Fed Chair press conference begins at 2:30 p.m. EST.
Keep in mind that the initial move is often wrong. The real trend tends to show up on Thursday and Friday.
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold rates. Watch for a softening economy narrative or a more dovish tone. If that happens, the initial reaction could be a move higher—but it could also be followed by a meaningful sell-off later in the week.
2. Oil Keeps Climbing
Iran has attacked U.S. bases, and Trump has vowed to respond with force.
Separately, Saudi Arabia has attacked Iraq.
WTI crude oil is now up roughly 25% from its early July lows.
Looking strictly at the chart, $100 oil doesn’t seem out of the question.
But remember, one tweet can change the entire picture within minutes. There is an incredible amount of noise surrounding this war, and oil has become extremely reactive to it. Be mindful.
Don’t bet your rent.
3. Gold Is Still Looking for Direction
Bond yields and the U.S. dollar remain elevated. That continues to put pressure on gold and silver.
For gold, $4,000 remains the key support level, while $4,100 is the key resistance level. A break above or below either level could provide the next directional move.
For silver, it almost feels like the excitement has left the chat. On the downside, $55 remains the level to watch.
For the contrarians: a number of major Wall Street banks have cut their gold price targets. Very few are now calling for $5,000 gold this year. Many have pushed those expectations out to 2027. And almost no one is talking about $6,000 gold anymore.
4. Crowd Psychology Doesn’t Change
We warned about bubble-like behavior in memory and chip stocks.
We warned about space stocks.
Sadly, we’ve been proven right.
No, we don’t have a magic formula or inside information. We certainly don’t control the market. That’s ridiculous.
We have simply seen this movie play out many times before. Crowd behavior rarely changes.
The day you hear about how these stocks are going to zero, and that becomes prevailing sentiment; that’s the time to go look hard.
5. The Bigger Risks Are Still There
The S&P 500 has now closed below its 50-day moving average for four consecutive sessions. Will today make it five? Historically, it’s worth being cautious when the index trades below its 50-day moving average, especially if you’re long.
Tomorrow brings the Bank of Japan’s interest rate decision. Japan remains one of the most overlooked risks in global markets. A stronger U.S. dollar and higher oil prices continue to pressure the Japanese yen and Japanese bond yields.
And then there’s Canada…
One problem that still doesn’t seem to be getting enough attention is that Canadians now carry roughly $1.80 of debt for every $1.00 of income. Add in Trump’s tariffs and ongoing trade uncertainty, and it’s easy to see why business sentiment remains weak and why so much indecision persists.